Aaon Inc Stock Price Patterns
| AAON Stock | USD 95.24 1.87 2.00% |
Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.45 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.42 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.984 | Wall Street Target Price 115.25 |
Using AAON hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AAON Inc from the perspective of AAON response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AAON using AAON's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AAON using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AAON's stock price.
AAON Short Interest
An investor who is long AAON may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AAON and may potentially protect profits, hedge AAON with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 87.9688 | Short Percent 0.1689 | Short Ratio 8.55 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.4 M | 50 Day MA 85.4918 |
AAON Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AAON's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AAON. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AAON can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AAON Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AAON's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AAON.
AAON Implied Volatility | 0.64 |
AAON's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AAON Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AAON's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AAON stock will not fluctuate a lot when AAON's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AAON to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AAON because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
AAON after-hype prediction price | USD 95.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AAON contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AAON Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.04% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With AAON trading at USD 95.24, that is roughly USD 0.0381 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AAON's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AAON Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.64%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out AAON Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. AAON After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AAON at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AAON or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AAON, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AAON Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AAON's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AAON's historical news coverage. AAON's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 92.43 and 98.05, respectively. We have considered AAON's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AAON is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AAON Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
AAON Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AAON is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AAON backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AAON, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 2.81 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
95.24 | 95.24 | 0.00 |
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AAON Hype Timeline
AAON Inc is presently traded for 95.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. AAON is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 108.49%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on AAON is about 325.23%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 95.27. About 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.86. AAON Inc last dividend was issued on the 26th of November 2025. The entity had 3:2 split on the 17th of August 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out AAON Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.AAON Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AAON's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AAON's future price movements. Getting to know how AAON's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AAON may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AWI | Armstrong World Industries | 0.27 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.43 | (2.15) | 7.39 | |
| SSD | Simpson Manufacturing | (5.49) | 11 per month | 1.33 | 0.06 | 2.84 | (2.17) | 6.98 | |
| IESC | IES Holdings | (8.88) | 9 per month | 4.87 | 0.02 | 5.82 | (5.13) | 28.38 | |
| PRIM | Primoris Services | 4.74 | 9 per month | 3.47 | 0.01 | 5.21 | (5.37) | 14.82 | |
| FLR | Fluor | (0.11) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.41 | (3.81) | 9.28 | |
| TTEK | Tetra Tech | 0.54 | 8 per month | 1.42 | 0.12 | 4.35 | (3.21) | 21.35 | |
| AEIS | Advanced Energy Industries | 15.40 | 11 per month | 2.64 | 0.09 | 6.03 | (5.04) | 21.74 | |
| ZWS | Zurn Elkay Water | 0.42 | 9 per month | 0.96 | 0.06 | 2.02 | (1.75) | 5.35 | |
| DY | Dycom Industries | 0.78 | 11 per month | 2.22 | 0.13 | 3.29 | (4.19) | 14.96 | |
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 0.97 | 14 per month | 1.30 | 0.09 | 3.91 | (2.20) | 10.84 |
AAON Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AAON price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AAON using various technical indicators. When you analyze AAON charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About AAON Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of AAON stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AAON Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AAON based on analysis of AAON hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AAON's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AAON's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.004411 | 0.002721 | 0.003129 | 0.002972 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.13 | 7.99 | 7.19 | 7.55 |
Pair Trading with AAON
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AAON position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AAON will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against AAON Stock
| 0.66 | IVVD | Invivyd | PairCorr |
| 0.58 | CSW | CSW Industrials Symbol Change | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | 52SA | SYSTEMAIR AB | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | ZEHN | Zehnder | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | GGLDF | Getchell Gold Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.35 | FORN | Forbo Holding AG | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to AAON could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AAON when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AAON - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AAON Inc to buy it.
The correlation of AAON is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AAON moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AAON Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AAON can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out AAON Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Will Building Products sector continue expanding? Could AAON diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AAON. If investors know AAON will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every AAON data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | Dividend Share 0.38 | Earnings Share 1.24 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.168 |
Investors evaluate AAON Inc using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating AAON's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause AAON's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that AAON's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether AAON represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, AAON's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.