Allison Transmission Holdings Stock Price Patterns
| ALSN Stock | USD 117.79 2.04 1.76% |
Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.17 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.6641 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.7365 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.5141 | Wall Street Target Price 114.8 |
Using Allison Transmission hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allison Transmission Holdings from the perspective of Allison Transmission response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Allison Transmission using Allison Transmission's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Allison using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Allison Transmission's stock price.
Allison Transmission Short Interest
An investor who is long Allison Transmission may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Allison Transmission and may potentially protect profits, hedge Allison Transmission with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 93.6607 | Short Percent 0.0336 | Short Ratio 2.57 | Shares Short Prior Month 2 M | 50 Day MA 103.651 |
Allison Transmission Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Allison Transmission's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Allison. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Allison can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Allison Transmission Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Allison Transmission's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Allison Transmission.
Allison Transmission Implied Volatility | 0.51 |
Allison Transmission's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Allison Transmission Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Allison Transmission's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Allison Transmission stock will not fluctuate a lot when Allison Transmission's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Allison Transmission to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Allison because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Allison Transmission after-hype prediction price | USD 118.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Allison contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Allison Transmission Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0319% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Allison Transmission trading at USD 117.79, that is roughly USD 0.0375 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Allison Transmission's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Allison Transmission Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Allison Transmission Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allison Transmission's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Allison Transmission After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Allison Transmission at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Allison Transmission or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Allison Transmission, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Allison Transmission Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Allison Transmission's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Allison Transmission's historical news coverage. Allison Transmission's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 117.46 and 120.50, respectively. We have considered Allison Transmission's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Allison Transmission is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Allison Transmission is based on 3 months time horizon.
Allison Transmission Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Allison Transmission is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Allison Transmission backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Allison Transmission, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.67 | 1.52 | 1.19 | 0.14 | 11 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
117.79 | 118.98 | 1.01 |
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Allison Transmission Hype Timeline
Allison Transmission is presently traded for 117.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.14. Allison is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 118.98 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 85.39%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 1.01%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.67%. The volatility of related hype on Allison Transmission is about 745.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 117.93. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 3.23 B. Net Income was 731 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.48 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Allison Transmission Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Allison Transmission Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Allison Transmission's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Allison Transmission's future price movements. Getting to know how Allison Transmission's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Allison Transmission may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GNTX | Gentex | 0.97 | 9 per month | 1.19 | 0.03 | 2.72 | (2.01) | 8.90 | |
| ADNT | Adient PLC | (0.75) | 10 per month | 2.04 | 0.14 | 5.22 | (4.85) | 16.82 | |
| ALV | Autoliv | 0.26 | 7 per month | 1.54 | (0.01) | 3.13 | (2.57) | 8.44 | |
| FOXF | Fox Factory Holding | 0.06 | 10 per month | 2.64 | 0.1 | 4.58 | (4.89) | 12.56 | |
| DAN | Dana Inc | (0.53) | 9 per month | 1.12 | 0.25 | 5.01 | (2.89) | 13.40 | |
| APTV | Aptiv PLC | 3.37 | 9 per month | 2.32 | 0 | 3.59 | (3.91) | 11.51 | |
| LKQ | LKQ Corporation | (0.28) | 10 per month | 1.31 | 0.06 | 3.36 | (2.19) | 9.62 | |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | (0.19) | 12 per month | 1.25 | 0.15 | 3.79 | (2.89) | 12.29 | |
| MGA | Magna International | 1.11 | 7 per month | 1.03 | 0.17 | 3.67 | (2.63) | 8.84 | |
| AXL | American Axle Manufacturing | (0.04) | 10 per month | 2.14 | 0.15 | 8.55 | (4.01) | 13.56 | |
| VC | Visteon Corp | (0.86) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.40 | (3.27) | 8.70 | |
| DORM | Dorman Products | (0.62) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.11 | (2.04) | 6.34 | |
| BWA | BorgWarner | 0.15 | 9 per month | 1.51 | 0.15 | 3.71 | (3.11) | 21.77 |
Allison Transmission Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Allison price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allison using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allison charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Allison Transmission Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Allison Transmission stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Allison Transmission Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Allison Transmission based on analysis of Allison Transmission hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Allison Transmission's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Allison Transmission's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.009254 | 0.008329 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.92 | 3.35 |
Pair Trading with Allison Transmission
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Allison Transmission position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Allison Transmission will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Allison Stock
| 0.72 | DCO | Deere Company Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | VELO | Velo3D | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | KOMA | KOMATSU LTD SPONS | PairCorr |
| 0.94 | PFI | Palfinger AG | PairCorr |
Moving against Allison Stock
| 0.5 | GP | GreenPower Motor Buyout Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | 2W1 | WIELTON SA ZY | PairCorr |
| 0.46 | RPM | RPM Automotive Group | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | ALH | Alliance Laundry Holdings | PairCorr |
| 0.33 | BNC | CEA Industries Symbol Change | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Allison Transmission could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Allison Transmission when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Allison Transmission - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Allison Transmission Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Allison Transmission is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Allison Transmission moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Allison Transmission moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Allison Transmission can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Allison Transmission Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment sector continue expanding? Could Allison diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allison Transmission. If investors know Allison will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Allison Transmission data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.17 | Dividend Share 1.06 | Earnings Share 8.15 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.204 |
Investors evaluate Allison Transmission using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Allison Transmission's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Allison Transmission's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Allison Transmission's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Allison Transmission represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Allison Transmission's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.