American Public Education Stock Price Patterns
| APEI Stock | USD 41.78 0.49 1.16% |
Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.5 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.55 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.86 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.73 | Wall Street Target Price 43.3333 |
Using American Public hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Public Education from the perspective of American Public response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Public using American Public's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Public's stock price.
American Public Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in American Public's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards American. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of American Public stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 32.6395 | Short Percent 0.1133 | Short Ratio 6.79 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.7 M | 50 Day MA 37.8084 |
American Public Education Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Public's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Public Education. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Public's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Public.
American Public Implied Volatility | 0.82 |
American Public's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Public Education stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Public's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Public stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Public's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Public to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
American Public after-hype prediction price | USD 42.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Public Education will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0513% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With American Public trading at USD 41.78, that is roughly USD 0.0214 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Public's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Public Education options at the current volatility level of 0.82%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out American Public Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Public's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Public After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Public at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Public or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Public, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Public Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Public's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Public's historical news coverage. American Public's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.01 and 44.49, respectively. We have considered American Public's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Public is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Public Education is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Public Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Public is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Public backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Public, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.45 | 2.24 | 0.47 | 0.05 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
41.78 | 42.25 | 1.12 |
|
American Public Hype Timeline
American Public Education is presently traded for 41.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.47, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. American is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 42.25 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.12%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.45%. The volatility of related hype on American Public is about 2074.07%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.73. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 624.56 M. Net Income was 16.11 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 354.92 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out American Public Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.American Public Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Public's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Public's future price movements. Getting to know how American Public's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Public may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services | 0.16 | 9 per month | 2.79 | 0.06 | 5.32 | (4.53) | 20.71 | |
| KLC | KinderCare Learning Companies | (0.25) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.00 | (6.18) | 24.00 | |
| BYND | Beyond Meat | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 11.83 | (10.20) | 45.83 | |
| VSTA | Vasta Platform | 0.04 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 1.42 | (1.61) | 11.44 | |
| NUS | Nu Skin Enterprises | 0.14 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.85 | (4.16) | 20.63 | |
| QSG | QuantaSing Group Limited | (0.32) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 6.26 | (6.49) | 16.19 | |
| DNUT | Krispy Kreme | (0.38) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.39 | (5.95) | 20.08 | |
| MGPI | MGP Ingredients | (0.38) | 14 per month | 2.20 | (0.01) | 3.56 | (4.14) | 12.18 | |
| STKL | SunOpta | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.09 | (3.77) | 27.96 | |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corp | (0.17) | 8 per month | 2.15 | (0.01) | 2.65 | (3.26) | 12.80 |
American Public Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About American Public Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of American Public stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Public Education, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Public based on analysis of American Public hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Public's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Public's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0159 | 0.0183 | 0.0174 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.61 | 0.7 | 0.67 |
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When running American Public's price analysis, check to measure American Public's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Public is operating at the current time. Most of American Public's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Public's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Public's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Public to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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