Appfolio Stock Price Prediction
| APPF Stock | USD 226.55 4.04 1.75% |
Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.25 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2743 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.2991 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.3727 | Wall Street Target Price 274.8517 |
Using Appfolio hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Appfolio from the perspective of Appfolio response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Appfolio using Appfolio's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Appfolio using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Appfolio's stock price.
Appfolio Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Appfolio's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Appfolio. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Appfolio stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 235.9642 | Short Percent 0.0173 | Short Ratio 2.04 | Shares Short Prior Month 485.3 K | 50 Day MA 252.221 |
Appfolio Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Appfolio's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Appfolio. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Appfolio can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Appfolio. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Appfolio's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Appfolio.
Appfolio Implied Volatility | 0.47 |
Appfolio's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Appfolio stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Appfolio's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Appfolio stock will not fluctuate a lot when Appfolio's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Appfolio to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Appfolio because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Appfolio after-hype prediction price | USD 226.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Appfolio contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Appfolio will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0294% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Appfolio trading at USD 226.55, that is roughly USD 0.0665 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Appfolio's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Appfolio options at the current volatility level of 0.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Appfolio |
Appfolio After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Appfolio at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Appfolio or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Appfolio, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Appfolio Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Appfolio's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Appfolio's historical news coverage. Appfolio's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 224.48 and 228.62, respectively. We have considered Appfolio's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Appfolio is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Appfolio is based on 3 months time horizon.
Appfolio Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Appfolio is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Appfolio backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Appfolio, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.06 | 0.30 | 0.01 | 12 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
226.55 | 226.55 | 0.00 |
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Appfolio Hype Timeline
Appfolio is presently traded for 226.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.3, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Appfolio is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 20.66%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Appfolio is about 563.02%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 226.56. About 84.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.55. Appfolio had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Appfolio Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Appfolio Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Appfolio's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Appfolio's future price movements. Getting to know how Appfolio's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Appfolio may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Appfolio Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Appfolio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Appfolio using various technical indicators. When you analyze Appfolio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Appfolio Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Appfolio stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Appfolio, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Appfolio based on analysis of Appfolio hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Appfolio's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Appfolio's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Graham Number | 18.22 | 3.77 | 42.59 | 44.72 | Receivables Turnover | 28.59 | 29.96 | 32.62 | 37.92 |
Story Coverage note for Appfolio
The number of cover stories for Appfolio depends on current market conditions and Appfolio's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Appfolio is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Appfolio's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Appfolio Short Properties
Appfolio's future price predictability will typically decrease when Appfolio's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Appfolio often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Appfolio's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Appfolio's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 278.2 M |
Complementary Tools for Appfolio Stock analysis
When running Appfolio's price analysis, check to measure Appfolio's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Appfolio is operating at the current time. Most of Appfolio's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Appfolio's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Appfolio's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Appfolio to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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