Ares Capital Stock Price Prediction
| ARCC Stock | USD 20.27 0.08 0.39% |
Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5034 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.9923 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.9518 | Wall Street Target Price 22.6429 |
Using Ares Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ares Capital from the perspective of Ares Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ares Capital using Ares Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ares using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ares Capital's stock price.
Ares Capital Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Ares Capital's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ares. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ares Capital stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 21.1908 | Short Percent 0.0244 | Short Ratio 3.64 | Shares Short Prior Month 19.9 M | 50 Day MA 20.4312 |
Ares Capital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ares Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ares. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ares can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ares Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ares Capital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ares Capital.
Ares Capital Implied Volatility | 0.63 |
Ares Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ares Capital stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ares Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ares Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ares Capital's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ares Capital to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ares because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ares Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 20.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ares contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ares Capital will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0394% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Ares Capital trading at USD 20.27, that is roughly USD 0.007981 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ares Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ares Capital options at the current volatility level of 0.63%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Ares Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ares Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ares Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ares Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ares Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ares Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ares Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ares Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ares Capital's historical news coverage. Ares Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.41 and 21.39, respectively. We have considered Ares Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ares Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ares Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ares Capital Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ares Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ares Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ares Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 0.99 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
20.27 | 20.40 | 0.25 |
|
Ares Capital Hype Timeline
Ares Capital is presently traded for 20.27. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Ares is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 20.4 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 165.0%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.25%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Ares Capital is about 1120.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.26. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.37 B. Net Income was 1.52 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.02 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Ares Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ares Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ares Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ares Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Ares Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ares Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | 0.05 | 12 per month | 1.48 | 0.09 | 2.51 | (2.58) | 8.89 | |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | 0.14 | 8 per month | 1.07 | (0.03) | 2.13 | (2.11) | 5.76 | |
| MAIN | Main Street Capital | (1.06) | 11 per month | 0.93 | 0.10 | 2.60 | (2.07) | 5.67 | |
| CSWC | Capital Southwest | 0.03 | 5 per month | 0.90 | 0.11 | 2.20 | (2.02) | 6.18 | |
| GAIN | Gladstone Investment | (0.12) | 8 per month | 0.67 | (0.06) | 1.23 | (1.23) | 3.47 | |
| PFLT | PennantPark Floating Rate | 0.10 | 11 per month | 0.71 | 0.09 | 1.95 | (1.50) | 4.17 | |
| PSEC | Prospect Capital | 0.04 | 9 per month | 1.61 | 0.03 | 4.60 | (3.05) | 10.92 | |
| HTGC | Hercules Capital | (0.27) | 13 per month | 0.92 | 0.06 | 1.86 | (1.64) | 4.48 | |
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | (0.18) | 8 per month | 1.06 | 0.05 | 2.09 | (1.72) | 9.50 | |
| HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance | 0.04 | 7 per month | 0.79 | 0.11 | 2.53 | (1.59) | 11.64 | |
| SCM | Stellus Capital Investment | 0.26 | 7 per month | 1.17 | 0.06 | 2.04 | (1.71) | 6.78 | |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending | (0.09) | 6 per month | 1.31 | (0.01) | 2.23 | (2.09) | 5.52 |
Ares Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ares using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ares Capital Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ares Capital stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ares Capital, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ares Capital based on analysis of Ares Capital hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ares Capital's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ares Capital's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0929 | 0.0834 | 0.075 | 0.0746 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.12 | 5.77 | 6.64 | 9.11 |
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