Arcos Dorados Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| ARCO Stock | USD 8.09 0.11 1.34% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
49
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.15 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.61 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.8526 | Wall Street Target Price 13 |
Using Arcos Dorados hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arcos Dorados Holdings from the perspective of Arcos Dorados response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Arcos Dorados' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Arcos. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arcos can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arcos Dorados Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Arcos Dorados' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Arcos Dorados.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Arcos Dorados to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Arcos because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Arcos Dorados after-hype prediction price | USD 8.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Arcos |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arcos Dorados' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arcos Dorados After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arcos Dorados at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arcos Dorados or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arcos Dorados, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arcos Dorados Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arcos Dorados' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arcos Dorados' historical news coverage. Arcos Dorados' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.45 and 10.77, respectively. We have considered Arcos Dorados' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arcos Dorados is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arcos Dorados Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arcos Dorados Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arcos Dorados is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arcos Dorados backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arcos Dorados, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.64 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.09 | 8.11 | 0.00 |
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Arcos Dorados Hype Timeline
Arcos Dorados Holdings is presently traded for 8.09. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.04. Arcos is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Arcos Dorados is about 370.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.13. About 45.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Arcos Dorados was presently reported as 2.45. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.15. Arcos Dorados Holdings last dividend was issued on the 20th of December 2024. The entity had 993:979 split on the 13th of July 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Arcos Dorados Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Arcos Dorados Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arcos Dorados' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arcos Dorados' future price movements. Getting to know how Arcos Dorados' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arcos Dorados may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BJRI | BJs Restaurants | 0.11 | 8 per month | 2.23 | 0.06 | 4.59 | (2.64) | 13.19 | |
| FRGI | Fiesta Restaurant Group | (0.22) | 1 per month | 2.75 | (0.04) | 4.69 | (3.69) | 12.75 | |
| DIN | Dine Brands Global | 2.54 | 10 per month | 2.83 | 0.03 | 4.71 | (4.50) | 19.97 | |
| EAT | Brinker International | 1.09 | 10 per month | 1.25 | 0.35 | 5.04 | (2.48) | 11.91 | |
| RUTH | Ruths Hospitality Group | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.94 | 0.07 | 1.75 | (2.63) | 34.37 | |
| CHUY | Chuys Holdings | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.67 | (0.27) | 48.46 | |
| BLMN | Bloomin Brands | 0.20 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.72 | (4.83) | 17.75 | |
| DENN | Dennys Corp | 0.15 | 9 per month | 3.78 | (0.01) | 6.40 | (4.38) | 26.32 | |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory | (0.42) | 10 per month | 1.65 | 0.09 | 4.75 | (3.10) | 13.08 | |
| PBPB | Potbelly Co | 1.69 | 8 per month | 1.52 | 0.1 | 4.24 | (3.01) | 24.84 | |
| WING | Wingstop | 2.76 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.59 | (4.14) | 25.52 |
Arcos Dorados Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arcos price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arcos using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arcos charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Arcos Dorados Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Arcos Dorados stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Arcos Dorados Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arcos Dorados based on analysis of Arcos Dorados hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Arcos Dorados's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Arcos Dorados's related companies. | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.01 | 1.7E-5 | 0.0179 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.49 |
Story Coverage note for Arcos Dorados
The number of cover stories for Arcos Dorados depends on current market conditions and Arcos Dorados' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arcos Dorados is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arcos Dorados' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arcos Dorados Short Properties
Arcos Dorados' future price predictability will typically decrease when Arcos Dorados' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arcos Dorados Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arcos Dorados' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcos Dorados' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 210.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 246.8 M |
Check out Arcos Dorados Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arcos Dorados. If investors know Arcos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arcos Dorados listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | Earnings Share 0.69 | Revenue Per Share 21.328 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.068 | Return On Assets 0.0693 |
The market value of Arcos Dorados Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arcos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arcos Dorados' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arcos Dorados' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arcos Dorados' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arcos Dorados' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arcos Dorados' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arcos Dorados is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arcos Dorados' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.