Armour Residential Reit Stock Price Patterns
| ARR Stock | USD 18.47 0.10 0.54% |
Momentum 78
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.231 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.7928 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.1398 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.1311 | Wall Street Target Price 18.625 |
Using ARMOUR Residential hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ARMOUR Residential REIT from the perspective of ARMOUR Residential response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ARMOUR Residential using ARMOUR Residential's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ARMOUR using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ARMOUR Residential's stock price.
ARMOUR Residential Short Interest
An investor who is long ARMOUR Residential may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ARMOUR Residential and may potentially protect profits, hedge ARMOUR Residential with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 16.3291 | Short Percent 0.1256 | Short Ratio 3.53 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.4 M | 50 Day MA 17.5678 |
ARMOUR Residential REIT Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ARMOUR Residential's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ARMOUR. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ARMOUR can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ARMOUR Residential REIT. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ARMOUR Residential's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ARMOUR Residential.
ARMOUR Residential Implied Volatility | 0.47 |
ARMOUR Residential's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ARMOUR Residential REIT stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ARMOUR Residential's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ARMOUR Residential stock will not fluctuate a lot when ARMOUR Residential's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ARMOUR Residential to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ARMOUR because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ARMOUR Residential after-hype prediction price | USD 18.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ARMOUR contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ARMOUR Residential REIT will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0294% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With ARMOUR Residential trading at USD 18.47, that is roughly USD 0.005426 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ARMOUR Residential's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ARMOUR Residential REIT options at the current volatility level of 0.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out ARMOUR Residential Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. ARMOUR Residential After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ARMOUR Residential at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ARMOUR Residential or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ARMOUR Residential, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ARMOUR Residential Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ARMOUR Residential's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ARMOUR Residential's historical news coverage. ARMOUR Residential's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.26 and 19.68, respectively. We have considered ARMOUR Residential's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ARMOUR Residential is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ARMOUR Residential REIT is based on 3 months time horizon.
ARMOUR Residential Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ARMOUR Residential is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ARMOUR Residential backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ARMOUR Residential, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 1.21 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.47 | 18.47 | 0.00 |
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ARMOUR Residential Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January ARMOUR Residential REIT is traded for 18.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. ARMOUR is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on ARMOUR Residential is about 3403.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.46. About 61.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.98. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ARMOUR Residential REIT last dividend was issued on the 15th of January 2026. The entity had 1:5 split on the 2nd of October 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out ARMOUR Residential Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.ARMOUR Residential Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ARMOUR Residential's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ARMOUR Residential's future price movements. Getting to know how ARMOUR Residential's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ARMOUR Residential may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DX | Dynex Capital | (0.08) | 8 per month | 0.32 | 0.19 | 1.89 | (0.88) | 3.57 | |
| FBRT | Franklin BSP Realty | (0.11) | 16 per month | 0.95 | 0.02 | 2.09 | (1.46) | 4.88 | |
| PMT | PennyMac Mortgage Investment | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.08 | 2.42 | (2.21) | 6.97 | |
| ARI | Apollo Commercial Real | (0.11) | 5 per month | 0.90 | 0.06 | 2.07 | (1.72) | 4.99 | |
| EPR | EPR Properties | 0.46 | 17 per month | 1.61 | (0.02) | 2.03 | (1.77) | 6.05 | |
| EFC | Ellington Financial | (0.02) | 15 per month | 1.06 | 0.01 | 1.27 | (1.61) | 8.52 | |
| GNL | Global Net Lease | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.63 | 0.25 | 2.49 | (1.36) | 8.05 | |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | (0.09) | 10 per month | 1.03 | (0) | 1.74 | (1.54) | 4.94 | |
| NTST | Netstreit Corp | (0.30) | 19 per month | 1.09 | (0.03) | 1.92 | (1.67) | 5.29 |
ARMOUR Residential Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ARMOUR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ARMOUR using various technical indicators. When you analyze ARMOUR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About ARMOUR Residential Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ARMOUR Residential stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ARMOUR Residential REIT, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ARMOUR Residential based on analysis of ARMOUR Residential hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ARMOUR Residential's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ARMOUR Residential's related companies. | 2023 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.65 | 0.83 | 0.79 | Dividend Yield | 0.27 | 0.15 | 0.12 |
Pair Trading with ARMOUR Residential
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ARMOUR Residential position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ARMOUR Residential will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with ARMOUR Stock
| 0.71 | CIM | Chimera Investment | PairCorr |
| 0.97 | IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | PairCorr |
| 0.98 | NLY | Annaly Capital Management | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | TWO | Two Harbors Investments Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.96 | AGNC | AGNC Investment Corp Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | STWD | Starwood Property Trust Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
Moving against ARMOUR Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ARMOUR Residential could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ARMOUR Residential when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ARMOUR Residential - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ARMOUR Residential REIT to buy it.
The correlation of ARMOUR Residential is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ARMOUR Residential moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ARMOUR Residential REIT moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ARMOUR Residential can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for ARMOUR Stock Analysis
When running ARMOUR Residential's price analysis, check to measure ARMOUR Residential's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ARMOUR Residential is operating at the current time. Most of ARMOUR Residential's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ARMOUR Residential's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ARMOUR Residential's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ARMOUR Residential to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.