Aura Minerals Common Stock Price Prediction
| AUGO Stock | 51.77 0.19 0.37% |
Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year 1.27 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.325 | Wall Street Target Price 40.225 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.587 |
Using Aura Minerals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aura Minerals Common from the perspective of Aura Minerals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aura Minerals using Aura Minerals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aura using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aura Minerals' stock price.
Aura Minerals Short Interest
An investor who is long Aura Minerals may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Aura Minerals and may potentially protect profits, hedge Aura Minerals with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 30.8625 | Short Ratio 0.8 | Shares Short Prior Month 355.3 K | 50 Day MA 33.955 | Shares Short 374.8 K |
Aura Minerals Common Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Aura Minerals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Aura. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aura can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aura Minerals Common. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Aura Minerals' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Aura Minerals.
Aura Minerals Implied Volatility | 0.83 |
Aura Minerals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aura Minerals Common stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aura Minerals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aura Minerals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aura Minerals' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Aura Minerals to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Aura because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Aura Minerals after-hype prediction price | USD 51.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Aura contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Aura Minerals Common will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0519% per day over the life of the 2026-02-20 option contract. With Aura Minerals trading at USD 51.77, that is roughly USD 0.0269 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Aura Minerals' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Aura Minerals Common options at the current volatility level of 0.83%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Aura Minerals Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Aura Minerals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aura Minerals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aura Minerals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aura Minerals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aura Minerals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aura Minerals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aura Minerals' historical news coverage. Aura Minerals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.88 and 54.92, respectively. We have considered Aura Minerals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aura Minerals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aura Minerals Common is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aura Minerals Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aura Minerals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aura Minerals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aura Minerals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.72 | 3.52 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
51.77 | 51.40 | 0.71 |
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Aura Minerals Hype Timeline
Aura Minerals Common is presently traded for 51.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.37, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.3. Aura is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 51.4. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.71%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.72%. The volatility of related hype on Aura Minerals is about 840.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 51.47. About 48.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.55. Aura Minerals Common last dividend was issued on the 17th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Aura Minerals Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Aura Minerals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aura Minerals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aura Minerals' future price movements. Getting to know how Aura Minerals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aura Minerals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EXK | Endeavour Silver Corp | (0.20) | 10 per month | 4.25 | 0.08 | 9.31 | (8.09) | 24.26 | |
| FSM | Fortuna Silver Mines | (0.13) | 11 per month | 2.94 | 0.08 | 4.83 | (4.62) | 16.83 | |
| PPTA | Perpetua Resources Corp | 0.43 | 8 per month | 4.04 | 0.14 | 7.73 | (7.37) | 24.42 | |
| USAS | Americas Silver Corp | 0.12 | 9 per month | 4.03 | 0.21 | 8.82 | (6.99) | 22.91 | |
| TGLS | Tecnoglass | (0.31) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 3.01 | (5.17) | 9.61 | |
| TTAM | Titan America SA | 0.30 | 9 per month | 1.63 | 0.07 | 3.28 | (2.56) | 7.79 | |
| TMC | TMC the metals | (0.85) | 9 per month | 5.29 | 0.07 | 17.65 | (9.63) | 31.75 | |
| ELVR | Sayona Mining Limited | (2.38) | 1 per month | 3.79 | 0.24 | 10.53 | (8.06) | 22.09 | |
| HWKN | Hawkins | (0.65) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.28 | (4.45) | 12.35 | |
| CENX | Century Aluminum | (0.52) | 7 per month | 3.70 | 0.12 | 7.82 | (6.55) | 27.76 |
Aura Minerals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aura price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aura using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aura charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Aura Minerals Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Aura Minerals stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Aura Minerals Common, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aura Minerals based on analysis of Aura Minerals hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Aura Minerals's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Aura Minerals's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0115 | 0.0161 | 0.0243 | 0.0164 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.47 | 4.2 | 2.95 | 4.68 |
Story Coverage note for Aura Minerals
The number of cover stories for Aura Minerals depends on current market conditions and Aura Minerals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aura Minerals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aura Minerals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aura Minerals Short Properties
Aura Minerals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Aura Minerals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aura Minerals Common often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aura Minerals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aura Minerals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 72.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 270.2 M |
Check out Aura Minerals Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aura Minerals. If investors know Aura will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aura Minerals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Dividend Share 1.46 | Earnings Share (0.55) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.587 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Aura Minerals Common is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aura that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aura Minerals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aura Minerals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aura Minerals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aura Minerals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aura Minerals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aura Minerals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aura Minerals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.