Aura Minerals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AUGO Stock | 51.77 0.19 0.37% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aura Minerals Common on the next trading day is expected to be 54.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.27. Aura Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Aura Minerals' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aura Minerals' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aura Minerals fundamentals over time.
At this time, Aura Minerals' Payables Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 25th of December 2025, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 1.20, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 4.24. . As of the 25th of December 2025, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 79 M. Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 Aura Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Aura Minerals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Aura Minerals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Aura Minerals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Aura Minerals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Aura Minerals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Aura Minerals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Aura. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Aura Minerals Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Aura Minerals' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 270.2 M | Current Value 201.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 48.9 M |
Aura Minerals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aura Minerals Common on the next trading day is expected to be 54.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08, mean absolute percentage error of 1.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aura Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aura Minerals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aura Minerals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aura Minerals | Aura Minerals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aura Minerals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aura Minerals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aura Minerals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.14 and 58.18, respectively. We have considered Aura Minerals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aura Minerals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aura Minerals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.5911 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.085 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0295 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 67.2687 |
Predictive Modules for Aura Minerals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aura Minerals Common. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Aura Minerals
For every potential investor in Aura, whether a beginner or expert, Aura Minerals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aura Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aura. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aura Minerals' price trends.Aura Minerals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aura Minerals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aura Minerals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aura Minerals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aura Minerals Common Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aura Minerals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aura Minerals' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aura Minerals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aura Minerals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aura Minerals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aura Minerals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aura Minerals Common entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9907.3 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.09) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 51.89 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 51.85 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.21) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.19) |
Aura Minerals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aura Minerals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aura Minerals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aura stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.71 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.57 | |||
| Variance | 12.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.4 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Aura Minerals
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aura Minerals position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aura Minerals will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Aura Stock
| 0.7 | 600988 | Chifeng Jilong Gold | PairCorr |
| 0.9 | B | Barrick Mining Symbol Change | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | AA | Alcoa Corp Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.87 | AG | First Majestic Silver Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.9 | AP | Ampco Pittsburgh | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aura Minerals could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aura Minerals when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aura Minerals - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aura Minerals Common to buy it.
The correlation of Aura Minerals is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aura Minerals moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aura Minerals Common moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aura Minerals can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aura Minerals to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aura Minerals. If investors know Aura will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aura Minerals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Dividend Share 1.46 | Earnings Share (0.55) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.587 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Aura Minerals Common is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aura that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aura Minerals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aura Minerals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aura Minerals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aura Minerals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aura Minerals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aura Minerals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aura Minerals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.