Bhp Group Limited Stock Price Prediction
| BHP Stock | USD 70.96 0.47 0.67% |
Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.3979 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.3697 | Wall Street Target Price 57 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) |
Using BHP Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BHP Group Limited from the perspective of BHP Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards BHP Group using BHP Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards BHP using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of BHP Group's stock price.
BHP Group Short Interest
An investor who is long BHP Group may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about BHP Group and may potentially protect profits, hedge BHP Group with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 53.7965 | Short Percent 0.0059 | Short Ratio 5.16 | Shares Short Prior Month 14.2 M | 50 Day MA 59.574 |
BHP Group Limited Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to BHP Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in BHP. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding BHP can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around BHP Group Limited. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of BHP Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about BHP Group.
BHP Group Implied Volatility | 0.63 |
BHP Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of BHP Group Limited stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if BHP Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that BHP Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when BHP Group's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in BHP Group to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying BHP because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
BHP Group after-hype prediction price | USD 70.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current BHP contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that BHP Group Limited will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0394% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With BHP Group trading at USD 70.96, that is roughly USD 0.0279 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating BHP Group's daily price movement you should consider acquiring BHP Group Limited options at the current volatility level of 0.63%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out BHP Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. BHP Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of BHP Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BHP Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of BHP Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
BHP Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting BHP Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BHP Group's historical news coverage. BHP Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 68.59 and 71.87, respectively. We have considered BHP Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
BHP Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BHP Group Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
BHP Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BHP Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BHP Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BHP Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 1.63 | 0.26 | 0.05 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
70.96 | 70.23 | 0.37 |
|
BHP Group Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January BHP Group Limited is traded for 70.96. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. BHP is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 70.23. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.37%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.37%. The volatility of related hype on BHP Group is about 1164.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 71.01. The book value of the company was currently reported as 9.39. The company last dividend was issued on the 5th of September 2025. BHP Group Limited had 1121:1000 split on the 2nd of June 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out BHP Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.BHP Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to BHP Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BHP Group's future price movements. Getting to know how BHP Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BHP Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VALE | Vale SA ADR | 0.03 | 10 per month | 1.20 | 0.27 | 4.29 | (2.34) | 12.30 | |
| CRH | CRH PLC ADR | 0.94 | 9 per month | 1.69 | 0.0004 | 3.22 | (3.04) | 10.55 | |
| ECL | Ecolab Inc | 0.75 | 20 per month | 1.46 | (0.02) | 2.03 | (2.27) | 4.98 | |
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Mines | 3.03 | 8 per month | 2.08 | 0.16 | 4.03 | (4.06) | 10.79 | |
| RIO | Rio Tinto ADR | (0.84) | 7 per month | 1.01 | 0.25 | 2.70 | (1.91) | 6.32 | |
| FCX | Freeport McMoran Copper Gold | 0.97 | 6 per month | 1.56 | 0.28 | 3.67 | (3.04) | 7.62 | |
| B | Barrick Mining | (1.57) | 7 per month | 1.52 | 0.31 | 4.37 | (3.07) | 12.93 | |
| NEM | Newmont Goldcorp Corp | (2.08) | 7 per month | 2.40 | 0.20 | 5.32 | (5.64) | 12.14 | |
| SHW | Sherwin Williams Co | (1.01) | 7 per month | 1.21 | (0.01) | 2.76 | (2.10) | 8.50 | |
| TECK | Teck Resources Ltd | 1.18 | 9 per month | 1.98 | 0.14 | 4.10 | (3.73) | 8.88 |
BHP Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine BHP price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BHP using various technical indicators. When you analyze BHP charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About BHP Group Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of BHP Group stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as BHP Group Limited, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of BHP Group based on analysis of BHP Group hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to BHP Group's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to BHP Group's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0525 | 0.0522 | 0.0266 | 0.0329 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.61 | 2.39 | 1.02 | 1.53 |
Pair Trading with BHP Group
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if BHP Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in BHP Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against BHP Stock
| 0.88 | GEO | Empire Metals Limited | PairCorr |
| 0.51 | FEAM | 5E Advanced Materials | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | THR | Thor Mining PLC | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to BHP Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace BHP Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back BHP Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling BHP Group Limited to buy it.
The correlation of BHP Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as BHP Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if BHP Group Limited moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for BHP Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for BHP Stock Analysis
When running BHP Group's price analysis, check to measure BHP Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BHP Group is operating at the current time. Most of BHP Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BHP Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BHP Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BHP Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.