Assured Guaranty (Germany) Price Prediction
| DHU Stock | EUR 86.50 1.00 1.17% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
59
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Assured Guaranty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Assured Guaranty from the perspective of Assured Guaranty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Assured Guaranty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Assured because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Assured Guaranty after-hype prediction price | EUR 86.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Assured |
Assured Guaranty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Assured Guaranty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Assured Guaranty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Assured Guaranty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Assured Guaranty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Assured Guaranty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Assured Guaranty's historical news coverage. Assured Guaranty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 83.33 and 89.67, respectively. We have considered Assured Guaranty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Assured Guaranty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Assured Guaranty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Assured Guaranty Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Assured Guaranty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Assured Guaranty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Assured Guaranty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 3.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
86.50 | 86.50 | 0.00 |
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Assured Guaranty Hype Timeline
Assured Guaranty is currently traded for 86.50on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Assured is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on Assured Guaranty is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 86.50. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.73. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Assured Guaranty last dividend was issued on the 7th of March 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in a few days. Check out Assured Guaranty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Assured Stock please use our How to Invest in Assured Guaranty guide.Assured Guaranty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Assured Guaranty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Assured Guaranty's future price movements. Getting to know how Assured Guaranty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Assured Guaranty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| Y1F | First American Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.05 | 0.02 | 2.55 | (1.72) | 6.12 | |
| MGC | MGIC Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.48 | 0 | 2.52 | (2.58) | 8.72 | |
| LNH | Lancashire Holdings Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.39 | 0.04 | 3.97 | (2.93) | 13.76 | |
| QPA1 | Trisura Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.70 | (0.04) | 2.86 | (2.24) | 8.54 |
Assured Guaranty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Assured price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Assured using various technical indicators. When you analyze Assured charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Assured Guaranty Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Assured Guaranty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Assured Guaranty, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Assured Guaranty based on analysis of Assured Guaranty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Assured Guaranty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Assured Guaranty's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Assured Guaranty
The number of cover stories for Assured Guaranty depends on current market conditions and Assured Guaranty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Assured Guaranty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Assured Guaranty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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Assured Guaranty Short Properties
Assured Guaranty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Assured Guaranty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Assured Guaranty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Assured Guaranty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Assured Guaranty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67.5 M |
Complementary Tools for Assured Stock analysis
When running Assured Guaranty's price analysis, check to measure Assured Guaranty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Assured Guaranty is operating at the current time. Most of Assured Guaranty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Assured Guaranty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Assured Guaranty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Assured Guaranty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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