First Guaranty Bancshares Preferred Stock Price Prediction

FGBIP Preferred Stock  USD 21.70  0.47  2.12%   
The relative strength momentum indicator of First Guaranty's the preferred stock price is slightly above 66. This usually indicates that the preferred stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling First, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

66

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of First Guaranty's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with First Guaranty Bancshares, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using First Guaranty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Guaranty Bancshares from the perspective of First Guaranty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First Guaranty to buy its preferred stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell preferred stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

First Guaranty after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 22.17  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as preferred stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out First Guaranty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20.2321.5822.93
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
20.3421.6923.04
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
21.7122.0122.31
Details

First Guaranty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of First Guaranty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Guaranty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Preferred Stock prices, such as prices of First Guaranty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

First Guaranty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting First Guaranty's preferred stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Guaranty's historical news coverage. First Guaranty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.82 and 23.52, respectively. We have considered First Guaranty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
21.70
22.17
After-hype Price
23.52
Upside
First Guaranty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Guaranty Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.

First Guaranty Preferred Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Guaranty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Guaranty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Preferred Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Guaranty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.15 
1.38
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
21.70
22.17
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

First Guaranty Hype Timeline

First Guaranty Bancshares is currently traded for 21.70. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. First is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Guaranty is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.70. The company last dividend was issued on the 14th of February 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out First Guaranty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

First Guaranty Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to First Guaranty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Guaranty's future price movements. Getting to know how First Guaranty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Guaranty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

First Guaranty Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About First Guaranty Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of First Guaranty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Guaranty Bancshares, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Guaranty based on analysis of First Guaranty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First Guaranty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First Guaranty's related companies.

Story Coverage note for First Guaranty

The number of cover stories for First Guaranty depends on current market conditions and First Guaranty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Guaranty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Guaranty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

First Guaranty Short Properties

First Guaranty's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Guaranty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Guaranty Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Guaranty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Guaranty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding10.7 M

Additional Tools for First Preferred Stock Analysis

When running First Guaranty's price analysis, check to measure First Guaranty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Guaranty is operating at the current time. Most of First Guaranty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Guaranty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Guaranty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Guaranty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.