Forestar Group Stock Price Patterns
| FOR Stock | USD 29.27 0.20 0.69% |
Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Forestar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Forestar Group from the perspective of Forestar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Forestar to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Forestar because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Forestar after-hype prediction price | USD 28.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Forestar Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Forestar After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Forestar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Forestar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Forestar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Forestar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Forestar's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Forestar's historical news coverage. Forestar's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.35 and 31.47, respectively. We have considered Forestar's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Forestar is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Forestar Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Forestar Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Forestar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Forestar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Forestar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
29.27 | 28.91 | 0.55 |
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Forestar Hype Timeline
On the 7th of February Forestar Group is traded for 29.27. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Forestar is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 28.91. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.55%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.34%. The volatility of related hype on Forestar is about 18285.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.27. About 62.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.83. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Forestar Group had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in a few days. Check out Forestar Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Forestar Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Forestar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Forestar's future price movements. Getting to know how Forestar's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Forestar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KREF | KKR Real Estate | (0.06) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.66 | (3.02) | 11.70 | |
| EFC | Ellington Financial | 0.07 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.43 | (1.71) | 8.85 | |
| ARI | Apollo Commercial Real | (0.05) | 8 per month | 0.82 | 0.09 | 2.07 | (1.62) | 6.91 | |
| SDHC | Smith Douglas Homes | 1.41 | 8 per month | 3.53 | (0) | 6.93 | (5.98) | 18.62 | |
| IIPR | Innovative Industrial Properties | (2.01) | 11 per month | 2.09 | (0.01) | 4.46 | (3.56) | 14.66 | |
| VRE | Veris Residential | (0.08) | 7 per month | 1.10 | 0.11 | 2.31 | (2.00) | 5.70 | |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.75 | (1.72) | 9.16 | |
| SILA | Sila Realty Trust | 0.28 | 8 per month | 1.01 | 0.03 | 2.17 | (1.67) | 5.45 | |
| HOUS | Anywhere Real Estate | 0.38 | 8 per month | 1.49 | 0.22 | 6.95 | (3.45) | 14.45 | |
| HBNB | Hotel101 Global Holdings | (0.07) | 5 per month | 5.18 | 0.11 | 10.64 | (9.49) | 41.07 |
Forestar Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Forestar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Forestar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Forestar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Forestar Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Forestar stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Forestar Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Forestar based on analysis of Forestar hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Forestar's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Forestar's related companies.
Pair Trading with Forestar
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Forestar position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Forestar will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Forestar could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Forestar when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Forestar - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Forestar Group to buy it.
The correlation of Forestar is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Forestar moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Forestar Group moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Forestar can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Forestar Stock Analysis
When running Forestar's price analysis, check to measure Forestar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Forestar is operating at the current time. Most of Forestar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Forestar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Forestar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Forestar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.