Gevo Inc Stock Price Patterns
| GEVO Stock | USD 1.86 0.04 2.11% |
Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.07) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.14) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.09) | Wall Street Target Price 5.3125 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.06) |
Using Gevo hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gevo Inc from the perspective of Gevo response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Gevo using Gevo's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Gevo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Gevo's stock price.
Gevo Short Interest
An investor who is long Gevo may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Gevo and may potentially protect profits, hedge Gevo with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 1.7584 | Short Percent 0.1434 | Short Ratio 12.91 | Shares Short Prior Month 34.2 M | 50 Day MA 2.079 |
Gevo Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Gevo's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Gevo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Gevo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Gevo Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Gevo's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Gevo.
Gevo Implied Volatility | 1.18 |
Gevo's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Gevo Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Gevo's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Gevo stock will not fluctuate a lot when Gevo's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Gevo to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Gevo because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Gevo after-hype prediction price | USD 1.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Gevo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Gevo Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0738% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Gevo trading at USD 1.86, that is roughly USD 0.001372 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Gevo's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Gevo Inc options at the current volatility level of 1.18%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Gevo Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gevo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gevo After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gevo at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gevo or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gevo, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gevo Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gevo's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gevo's historical news coverage. Gevo's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 5.48, respectively. We have considered Gevo's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gevo is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gevo Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gevo Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gevo is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gevo backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gevo, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 3.55 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.86 | 1.91 | 0.53 |
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Gevo Hype Timeline
Gevo Inc is currently traded for 1.86. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Gevo is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.91 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.53%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Gevo is about 3008.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.88. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 16.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (78.64 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 46.6 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Gevo Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Gevo Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gevo's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gevo's future price movements. Getting to know how Gevo's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gevo may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KRO | Kronos Worldwide | 0.27 | 7 per month | 2.74 | 0.14 | 6.07 | (5.07) | 13.75 | |
| LXU | Lsb Industries | 0.46 | 9 per month | 2.29 | 0.07 | 4.74 | (4.33) | 13.39 | |
| GPRE | Green Plains Renewable | (0.19) | 8 per month | 3.57 | 0.10 | 5.84 | (5.05) | 14.72 | |
| TROX | Tronox Holdings PLC | 0.13 | 7 per month | 3.05 | 0.26 | 9.43 | (6.04) | 34.47 | |
| MATV | Mativ Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.09 | 0.05 | 4.15 | (3.36) | 9.11 | |
| LWLG | Lightwave Logic | 0.41 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 9.56 | (10.95) | 31.90 | |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings | 0.41 | 9 per month | 1.52 | 0.09 | 3.56 | (3.16) | 8.65 | |
| ADUR | Aduro Clean Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 12.11 | (7.33) | 26.37 | |
| NFGC | New Found Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.64 | 0.11 | 7.25 | (8.95) | 30.08 | |
| ASIX | AdvanSix | (0.31) | 7 per month | 3.73 | (0) | 5.26 | (4.88) | 15.26 |
Gevo Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gevo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gevo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gevo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Gevo Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Gevo stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Gevo Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Gevo based on analysis of Gevo hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Gevo's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Gevo's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 83.91 | 67.78 | 61.0 | 113.82 | PTB Ratio | 0.5 | 0.99 | 1.14 | 1.08 |
Pair Trading with Gevo
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Gevo position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Gevo will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Gevo Stock
| 0.51 | VLO | Valero Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | GPRE | Green Plains Renewable | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | SGJH | Sinopec Shanghai Pet | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | CLMT | Calumet Specialty | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | DINO | HF Sinclair Corp Earnings Call Next Week | PairCorr |
| 0.32 | PSX | Phillips 66 Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Gevo could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Gevo when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Gevo - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Gevo Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Gevo is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Gevo moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Gevo Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Gevo can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Gevo Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Will Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector continue expanding? Could Gevo diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gevo. Market participants price Gevo higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Gevo data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (0.21) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 20.735 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Gevo Inc requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Gevo's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Gevo's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Gevo's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gevo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gevo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Gevo's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.