Ferroglobe Plc Stock Price Prediction
| GSM Stock | USD 4.57 0.05 1.11% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
43
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.52) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.01) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.28 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.485 | Wall Street Target Price 9 |
Using Ferroglobe PLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ferroglobe PLC from the perspective of Ferroglobe PLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ferroglobe PLC using Ferroglobe PLC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ferroglobe using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ferroglobe PLC's stock price.
Ferroglobe PLC Implied Volatility | 1.25 |
Ferroglobe PLC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ferroglobe PLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ferroglobe PLC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ferroglobe PLC stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ferroglobe PLC's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ferroglobe PLC to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ferroglobe because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ferroglobe PLC after-hype prediction price | USD 4.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ferroglobe contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ferroglobe PLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0781% per day over the life of the 2024-12-20 option contract. With Ferroglobe PLC trading at USD 4.57, that is roughly USD 0.00357 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ferroglobe PLC's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ferroglobe PLC options at the current volatility level of 1.25%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Ferroglobe |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ferroglobe PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ferroglobe PLC After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ferroglobe PLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ferroglobe PLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ferroglobe PLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ferroglobe PLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ferroglobe PLC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ferroglobe PLC's historical news coverage. Ferroglobe PLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.76 and 7.32, respectively. We have considered Ferroglobe PLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ferroglobe PLC is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ferroglobe PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ferroglobe PLC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ferroglobe PLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ferroglobe PLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ferroglobe PLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 2.78 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.57 | 4.54 | 0.44 |
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Ferroglobe PLC Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of November Ferroglobe PLC is traded for 4.57. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Ferroglobe is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 4.54 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.44%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Ferroglobe PLC is about 2494.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.56. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.65 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 82.66 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.31 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Ferroglobe PLC Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ferroglobe PLC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ferroglobe PLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ferroglobe PLC's future price movements. Getting to know how Ferroglobe PLC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ferroglobe PLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FURY | Fury Gold Mines | 0.02 | 6 per month | 3.16 | (0) | 5.00 | (4.44) | 17.52 | |
| IPX | IperionX Limited American | (0.49) | 9 per month | 2.42 | 0.23 | 8.90 | (5.15) | 20.46 | |
| EMX | EMX Royalty Corp | 0.03 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.44 | (2.99) | 9.74 | |
| VZLA | Vizsla Resources Corp | 0.07 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.67 | (5.13) | 19.16 | |
| WRN | Western Copper and | (0.02) | 3 per month | 2.76 | (0.03) | 3.51 | (4.31) | 20.61 | |
| SKE | Skeena Resources | (0.12) | 4 per month | 2.55 | 0.04 | 4.99 | (2.97) | 20.96 | |
| CMP | Compass Minerals International | (0.27) | 9 per month | 2.86 | 0.13 | 10.57 | (5.36) | 27.27 |
Ferroglobe PLC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ferroglobe price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ferroglobe using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ferroglobe charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ferroglobe PLC Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ferroglobe PLC stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ferroglobe PLC, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ferroglobe PLC based on analysis of Ferroglobe PLC hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ferroglobe PLC's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ferroglobe PLC's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 1.63 | 1.68 | Dividend Yield | 0.0871 | 0.0827 |
Story Coverage note for Ferroglobe PLC
The number of cover stories for Ferroglobe PLC depends on current market conditions and Ferroglobe PLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ferroglobe PLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ferroglobe PLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ferroglobe PLC Short Properties
Ferroglobe PLC's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ferroglobe PLC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ferroglobe PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ferroglobe PLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ferroglobe PLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 190.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 136.5 M |
Check out Ferroglobe PLC Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Ferroglobe Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ferroglobe PLC guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Diversified Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ferroglobe PLC. If investors know Ferroglobe will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ferroglobe PLC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.52) | Earnings Share 0.21 | Revenue Per Share 8.785 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.04 | Return On Assets 0.047 |
The market value of Ferroglobe PLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ferroglobe that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ferroglobe PLC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ferroglobe PLC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ferroglobe PLC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ferroglobe PLC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ferroglobe PLC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ferroglobe PLC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ferroglobe PLC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.