Hexcel Stock Price Prediction
| HXL Stock | USD 59.52 0.96 1.64% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
49
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.085 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.55 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.0194 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.5111 | Wall Street Target Price 68.9447 |
Using Hexcel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hexcel from the perspective of Hexcel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Hexcel Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Hexcel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hexcel. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hexcel can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hexcel. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Hexcel's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Hexcel.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Hexcel to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Hexcel because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Hexcel after-hype prediction price | USD 59.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Hexcel |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hexcel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hexcel After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hexcel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hexcel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hexcel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hexcel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hexcel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hexcel's historical news coverage. Hexcel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 57.95 and 60.93, respectively. We have considered Hexcel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hexcel is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hexcel is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hexcel Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hexcel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hexcel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hexcel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.50 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 12 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
59.52 | 59.44 | 0.13 |
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Hexcel Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of November Hexcel is traded for 59.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Hexcel is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 59.44. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 197.37%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Hexcel is about 806.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 59.54. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Hexcel was currently reported as 19.62. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.83. Hexcel last dividend was issued on the 1st of November 2024. The entity had 3:2 split on the 23rd of May 1988. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Hexcel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Hexcel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hexcel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hexcel's future price movements. Getting to know how Hexcel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hexcel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DCO | Ducommun Incorporated | 0.55 | 10 per month | 1.56 | (0.03) | 2.90 | (2.30) | 8.32 | |
| MRCY | Mercury Systems | 0.04 | 9 per month | 1.83 | (0.01) | 2.83 | (3.43) | 29.10 | |
| WWD | Woodward | 0.15 | 9 per month | 1.34 | 0.06 | 2.58 | (1.93) | 7.52 | |
| AIR | AAR Corp | (0.88) | 7 per month | 1.94 | 0.01 | 2.64 | (3.52) | 14.62 | |
| CW | Curtiss Wright | 1.61 | 8 per month | 1.71 | 0.12 | 2.96 | (2.48) | 11.02 | |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc | 2.17 | 6 per month | 1.43 | 0.07 | 2.73 | (2.44) | 14.77 | |
| PKE | Park Electrochemical | 0.62 | 5 per month | 1.00 | 0.05 | 3.51 | (1.98) | 12.34 | |
| ISSC | Innovative Solutions and | 0.08 | 9 per month | 1.44 | 0.05 | 3.28 | (3.31) | 9.31 | |
| VSEC | VSE Corporation | (2.48) | 8 per month | 2.10 | 0.12 | 2.95 | (3.45) | 21.00 | |
| MOG-B | Moog Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.18 | 0.06 | 4.83 | (2.87) | 16.11 |
Hexcel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hexcel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hexcel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hexcel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Hexcel Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Hexcel stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Hexcel, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Hexcel based on analysis of Hexcel hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Hexcel's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Hexcel's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.006785 | 0.006764 | 0.006425 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.29 | 3.49 | 3.66 |
Story Coverage note for Hexcel
The number of cover stories for Hexcel depends on current market conditions and Hexcel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hexcel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hexcel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Hexcel Short Properties
Hexcel's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hexcel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hexcel often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hexcel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hexcel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 85.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 227 M |
Check out Hexcel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Hexcel Stock please use our How to buy in Hexcel Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hexcel. If investors know Hexcel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hexcel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.085 | Dividend Share 0.575 | Earnings Share 1.31 | Revenue Per Share 22.704 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.088 |
The market value of Hexcel is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hexcel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hexcel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hexcel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hexcel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hexcel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hexcel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hexcel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hexcel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.