Meritage Stock Price Prediction
| MTH Stock | USD 76.58 0.59 0.76% |
Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.8796 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.452 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.8798 | Wall Street Target Price 99.5622 |
Using Meritage hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Meritage from the perspective of Meritage response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Meritage using Meritage's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Meritage using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Meritage's stock price.
Meritage Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Meritage's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Meritage. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Meritage stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 89.3499 | Short Percent 0.054 | Short Ratio 2.46 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.3 M | 50 Day MA 82.8422 |
Meritage Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Meritage's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Meritage. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Meritage can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Meritage. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Meritage's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Meritage.
Meritage Implied Volatility | 0.4 |
Meritage's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Meritage stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Meritage's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Meritage stock will not fluctuate a lot when Meritage's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Meritage to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Meritage because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Meritage after-hype prediction price | USD 76.58 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Meritage contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Meritage will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.025% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Meritage trading at USD 76.58, that is roughly USD 0.0191 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Meritage's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Meritage options at the current volatility level of 0.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Meritage |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Meritage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Meritage After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Meritage at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Meritage or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Meritage, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Meritage Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Meritage's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Meritage's historical news coverage. Meritage's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 74.39 and 78.77, respectively. We have considered Meritage's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Meritage is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Meritage is based on 3 months time horizon.
Meritage Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Meritage is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Meritage backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Meritage, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 2.21 | 0.69 | 0.15 | 12 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
76.58 | 76.58 | 0.00 |
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Meritage Hype Timeline
On the 7th of February Meritage is traded for 76.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.69, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. Meritage is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 106.25%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.33%. %. The volatility of related hype on Meritage is about 476.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 76.43. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.08. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Meritage has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.28. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.72. The firm last dividend was issued on the 17th of December 2024. Meritage had 2:1 split on the 3rd of January 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Meritage Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Meritage Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Meritage's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Meritage's future price movements. Getting to know how Meritage's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Meritage may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TPH | TRI Pointe Homes | (0.59) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.01 | (2.85) | 8.28 | |
| MHO | MI Homes | (2.37) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.22 | (4.01) | 11.52 | |
| BZH | Beazer Homes USA | 0.60 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.68 | (3.84) | 28.35 | |
| CCS | Century Communities | (1.80) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.79 | (3.68) | 12.02 | |
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | 2.15 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.35 | (3.35) | 9.46 | |
| LGIH | LGI Homes | (0.41) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.92 | (3.63) | 12.00 | |
| HOV | Hovnanian Enterprises | (1.43) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 4.35 | (5.89) | 15.49 | |
| KBH | KB Home | 0.14 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.91 | (3.69) | 11.61 |
Meritage Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Meritage price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Meritage using various technical indicators. When you analyze Meritage charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Meritage Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Meritage stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Meritage, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Meritage based on analysis of Meritage hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Meritage's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Meritage's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.62 | 0.51 | Dividend Yield | 0.039 | 0.037 |
Story Coverage note for Meritage
The number of cover stories for Meritage depends on current market conditions and Meritage's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Meritage is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Meritage's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Meritage Short Properties
Meritage's future price predictability will typically decrease when Meritage's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Meritage often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Meritage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Meritage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.2 M |
Complementary Tools for Meritage Stock analysis
When running Meritage's price analysis, check to measure Meritage's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Meritage is operating at the current time. Most of Meritage's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Meritage's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Meritage's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Meritage to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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