Meritage Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MTH Stock | USD 72.00 2.55 3.42% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Meritage on the next trading day is expected to be 74.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.75. Meritage Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Meritage's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Meritage's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Meritage hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Meritage from the perspective of Meritage response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Meritage on the next trading day is expected to be 74.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.75. Meritage after-hype prediction price | USD 72.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meritage to cross-verify your projections. Meritage Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Meritage price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Meritage using various technical indicators. When you analyze Meritage charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Meritage Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Meritage on the next trading day is expected to be 74.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83, mean absolute percentage error of 4.85, and the sum of the absolute errors of 111.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Meritage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Meritage's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Meritage Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Meritage | Meritage Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Meritage Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Meritage's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Meritage's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 71.64 and 76.61, respectively. We have considered Meritage's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Meritage stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Meritage stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.6886 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.832 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0264 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 111.7517 |
Predictive Modules for Meritage
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Meritage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Meritage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Meritage After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Meritage at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Meritage or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Meritage, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Meritage Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Meritage's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Meritage's historical news coverage. Meritage's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 69.52 and 74.48, respectively. We have considered Meritage's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Meritage is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Meritage is based on 3 months time horizon.
Meritage Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Meritage is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Meritage backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Meritage, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.48 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
72.00 | 72.00 | 0.00 |
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Meritage Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Meritage is traded for 72.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Meritage is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Meritage is about 861.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 72.01. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.99. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Meritage has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.28. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.34. The firm last dividend was issued on the 17th of December 2025. Meritage had 2:1 split on the 3rd of January 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meritage to cross-verify your projections.Meritage Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Meritage's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Meritage's future price movements. Getting to know how Meritage's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Meritage may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KBH | KB Home | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.30 | (2.48) | 15.09 | |
| CVCO | Cavco Industries | 1.38 | 4 per month | 2.34 | 0.06 | 4.83 | (2.50) | 9.67 | |
| MHO | MI Homes | 1.38 | 8 per month | 2.00 | (0.04) | 4.51 | (3.54) | 10.17 | |
| SKY | Skyline | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.12 | 0.09 | 4.86 | (3.89) | 14.49 | |
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.33 | 0 | 3.92 | (2.69) | 10.34 | |
| GPK | Graphic Packaging Holding | 0.12 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.59 | (3.21) | 17.54 | |
| ABG | Asbury Automotive Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.71 | (0.02) | 3.65 | (2.56) | 8.25 | |
| EAT | Brinker International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.48 | 0.13 | 6.16 | (4.67) | 12.88 | |
| TPH | TRI Pointe Homes | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.54 | 0.01 | 5.16 | (2.65) | 10.81 | |
| GRBK | Green Brick Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.61 | (0) | 4.56 | (3.08) | 10.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Meritage
For every potential investor in Meritage, whether a beginner or expert, Meritage's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Meritage Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Meritage. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Meritage's price trends.Meritage Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Meritage stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Meritage could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Meritage by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Meritage Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Meritage stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Meritage shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Meritage stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Meritage entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 49770.37 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.85) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 72.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 72.61 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.20) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.55) |
Meritage Risk Indicators
The analysis of Meritage's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Meritage's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting meritage stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Variance | 6.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.63 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Meritage
The number of cover stories for Meritage depends on current market conditions and Meritage's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Meritage is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Meritage's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Meritage Short Properties
Meritage's future price predictability will typically decrease when Meritage's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Meritage often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Meritage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Meritage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 73.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 651.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meritage to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Meritage Stock please use our How to Invest in Meritage guide.You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Meritage. If investors know Meritage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Meritage listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Meritage is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Meritage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Meritage's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Meritage's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Meritage's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Meritage's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Meritage's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Meritage is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Meritage's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.