Obsidian Energy Stock Price Prediction
| OBE Stock | CAD 8.05 0.16 1.95% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
43
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.4 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.38 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.36 | Wall Street Target Price 13.625 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1 |
Using Obsidian Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Obsidian Energy from the perspective of Obsidian Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Obsidian Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Obsidian because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Obsidian Energy after-hype prediction price | CAD 8.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Obsidian |
Obsidian Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Obsidian Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Obsidian Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Obsidian Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Obsidian Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Obsidian Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Obsidian Energy's historical news coverage. Obsidian Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.25 and 10.89, respectively. We have considered Obsidian Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Obsidian Energy is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Obsidian Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Obsidian Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Obsidian Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Obsidian Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Obsidian Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 2.82 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 3 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.05 | 8.07 | 0.25 |
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Obsidian Energy Hype Timeline
Obsidian Energy is now traded for 8.05on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Obsidian is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 8.07 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.25%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Obsidian Energy is about 56400.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.05. The company reported the revenue of 653.3 M. Net Income was 108 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 549.1 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Obsidian Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Obsidian Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Obsidian Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Obsidian Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Obsidian Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Obsidian Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BNE | Bonterra Energy Corp | 0.02 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 4.10 | (3.45) | 10.22 | |
| CJ | Cardinal Energy | (0.01) | 2 per month | 1.32 | (0.09) | 1.78 | (2.18) | 4.90 | |
| SGY | Surge Energy | (0.03) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.51 | (3.31) | 9.03 | |
| IPO | InPlay Oil Corp | 0.04 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.45 | (3.76) | 8.86 |
Obsidian Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Obsidian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Obsidian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Obsidian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Obsidian Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Obsidian Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Obsidian Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Obsidian Energy based on analysis of Obsidian Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Obsidian Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Obsidian Energy's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.12 | 0.088 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.16 | 1.83 |
Story Coverage note for Obsidian Energy
The number of cover stories for Obsidian Energy depends on current market conditions and Obsidian Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Obsidian Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Obsidian Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Obsidian Energy Short Properties
Obsidian Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Obsidian Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Obsidian Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Obsidian Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Obsidian Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 84.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 500 K |
Check out Obsidian Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Obsidian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Obsidian Energy guide.You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.