Oak Valley Bancorp Stock Price Prediction
| OVLY Stock | USD 30.71 0.54 1.79% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
60
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.045 |
Using Oak Valley hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oak Valley Bancorp from the perspective of Oak Valley response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Oak Valley to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Oak because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Oak Valley after-hype prediction price | USD 30.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Oak |
Oak Valley After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oak Valley at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oak Valley or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oak Valley, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oak Valley Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oak Valley's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oak Valley's historical news coverage. Oak Valley's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.27 and 32.79, respectively. We have considered Oak Valley's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oak Valley is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oak Valley Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oak Valley Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oak Valley is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oak Valley backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oak Valley, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 2.27 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 3 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
30.71 | 30.53 | 1.19 |
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Oak Valley Hype Timeline
Oak Valley Bancorp is now traded for 30.71. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.41, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Oak is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 30.53 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 126.82%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 1.19%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Oak Valley is about 34050.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.71. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 80.67 M. Net Income was 30.85 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 67 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Oak Valley Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Oak Valley Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oak Valley's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oak Valley's future price movements. Getting to know how Oak Valley's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oak Valley may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CULL | Cullman Bancorp | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 1.18 | (1.64) | 4.73 | |
| HMNF | HMN Financial | (0.15) | 6 per month | 1.85 | 0.12 | 4.29 | (3.19) | 13.15 | |
| HFBL | Home Federal Bancorp | 0.00 | 4 per month | 2.40 | (0.01) | 3.82 | (4.31) | 21.70 | |
| HVBC | HV Bancorp | (0.52) | 3 per month | 2.03 | 0.1 | 2.68 | (4.11) | 18.63 | |
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp | 0.00 | 5 per month | 1.25 | 0.02 | 3.69 | (2.95) | 8.55 | |
| OFED | Oconee Federal Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.48 | (5.28) | 12.66 | |
| CIZN | Citizens Holding | 0.01 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.00 | (2.14) | 6.16 | |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | (0.09) | 8 per month | 1.08 | 0.03 | 2.53 | (2.16) | 9.14 | |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.55 | 0.02 | 1.63 | (1.22) | 3.88 | |
| FFNW | First Financial Northwest | 0.07 | 5 per month | 0.76 | (0.11) | 1.65 | (1.13) | 4.32 | |
| FCAP | First Capital | 0.48 | 8 per month | 1.81 | 0.01 | 6.22 | (3.53) | 14.42 | |
| HTBI | HomeTrust Bancshares | 0.10 | 6 per month | 1.62 | 0.03 | 3.05 | (3.47) | 18.54 |
Oak Valley Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oak price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oak using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oak charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Oak Valley Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Oak Valley stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Oak Valley Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Oak Valley based on analysis of Oak Valley hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Oak Valley's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Oak Valley's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0168 | 0.0107 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.61 | 3.05 |
Story Coverage note for Oak Valley
The number of cover stories for Oak Valley depends on current market conditions and Oak Valley's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oak Valley is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oak Valley's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Oak Valley Short Properties
Oak Valley's future price predictability will typically decrease when Oak Valley's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Oak Valley Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Oak Valley's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oak Valley's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 69.2 M |
Additional Tools for Oak Stock Analysis
When running Oak Valley's price analysis, check to measure Oak Valley's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oak Valley is operating at the current time. Most of Oak Valley's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oak Valley's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oak Valley's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oak Valley to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.