Rio Tinto Adr Stock Price Patterns
| RIO Stock | USD 92.52 1.49 1.64% |
Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.6322 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.4148 | Wall Street Target Price 87.1171 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.003 |
Using Rio Tinto hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Rio Tinto ADR from the perspective of Rio Tinto response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Rio Tinto using Rio Tinto's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Rio using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Rio Tinto's stock price.
Rio Tinto Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
Rio Tinto's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Rio Tinto ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Rio Tinto's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Rio Tinto stock will not fluctuate a lot when Rio Tinto's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Rio Tinto to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Rio because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Rio Tinto after-hype prediction price | USD 93.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Rio contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Rio Tinto ADR will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Rio Tinto trading at USD 92.52, that is roughly USD 0.0306 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Rio Tinto's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Rio Tinto ADR options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Rio Tinto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Rio Tinto After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Rio Tinto at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Rio Tinto or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Rio Tinto, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Rio Tinto Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Rio Tinto's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Rio Tinto's historical news coverage. Rio Tinto's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 91.72 and 94.80, respectively. We have considered Rio Tinto's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Rio Tinto is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Rio Tinto ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Rio Tinto Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Rio Tinto is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Rio Tinto backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Rio Tinto, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 1.54 | 0.74 | 0.24 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
92.52 | 93.26 | 0.80 |
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Rio Tinto Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Rio Tinto ADR is traded for 92.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.74, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.24. Rio is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 93.26 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 101.99%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.8%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.49%. The volatility of related hype on Rio Tinto is about 309.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 92.76. The company reported the last year's revenue of 53.66 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 11.55 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 14.89 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Rio Tinto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Rio Tinto Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Rio Tinto's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Rio Tinto's future price movements. Getting to know how Rio Tinto's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Rio Tinto may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SCCO | Southern Copper | 4.34 | 9 per month | 2.51 | 0.19 | 3.92 | (4.16) | 14.68 | |
| BHP | BHP Group Limited | (1.09) | 8 per month | 1.39 | 0.15 | 2.93 | (2.10) | 8.78 | |
| VALE | Vale SA ADR | 0.1 | 11 per month | 1.59 | 0.25 | 4.29 | (2.97) | 12.92 | |
| NEM | Newmont Goldcorp Corp | 2.95 | 7 per month | 2.83 | 0.18 | 5.32 | (3.80) | 17.32 | |
| CRH | CRH PLC ADR | 1.82 | 9 per month | 1.70 | 0.01 | 3.22 | (3.04) | 10.55 | |
| SHW | Sherwin Williams Co | 1.78 | 7 per month | 1.28 | (0.03) | 2.69 | (2.10) | 6.63 | |
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Mines | (5.21) | 8 per month | 2.99 | 0.10 | 4.03 | (4.06) | 17.48 | |
| GSM | Ferroglobe PLC | (0.02) | 7 per month | 3.22 | (0.01) | 5.66 | (5.47) | 19.69 | |
| ECL | Ecolab Inc | 0.56 | 10 per month | 1.15 | 0.03 | 2.03 | (1.79) | 4.70 | |
| TECK | Teck Resources Ltd | (0.25) | 8 per month | 2.45 | 0.14 | 4.10 | (4.20) | 8.88 |
Rio Tinto Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Rio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Rio using various technical indicators. When you analyze Rio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Rio Tinto Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Rio Tinto stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Rio Tinto ADR, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Rio Tinto based on analysis of Rio Tinto hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Rio Tinto's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Rio Tinto's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0533 | 0.0732 | 0.0659 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.25 | 1.79 | 2.06 |
Pair Trading with Rio Tinto
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Rio Tinto position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Rio Tinto will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Rio Stock
| 0.94 | CMP | Compass Minerals Int Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | GSM | Ferroglobe PLC | PairCorr |
| 0.98 | HBM | Hudbay Minerals | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | LAR | Lithium Argentina | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | NAK | Northern Dynasty Minerals | PairCorr |
| 0.79 | SLI | Standard Lithium | PairCorr |
Moving against Rio Stock
| 0.89 | GCMGW | GCM Grosvenor | PairCorr |
| 0.8 | ADVWW | Advantage Solutions | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | MAPSW | WM Technology | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | CMS | CMS Energy Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | SFX | Sheffield Resources | PairCorr |
| 0.39 | PCTTW | PureCycle Technologies | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Rio Tinto could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Rio Tinto when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Rio Tinto - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Rio Tinto ADR to buy it.
The correlation of Rio Tinto is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Rio Tinto moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Rio Tinto ADR moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Rio Tinto can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Rio Tinto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Diversified Metals & Mining sector continue expanding? Could Rio diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Rio Tinto. Anticipated expansion of Rio directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Rio Tinto data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Dividend Share 3.73 | Earnings Share 6.01 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.003 |
Rio Tinto ADR's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Rio's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Rio Tinto's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Rio Tinto's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Rio Tinto's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Rio Tinto should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Rio Tinto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.