Rli Corp Stock Price Prediction
| RLI Stock | USD 73.64 1.38 1.91% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
36
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.103 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.9244 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.0989 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.2456 | Wall Street Target Price 82.8 |
Using RLI Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of RLI Corp from the perspective of RLI Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards RLI Corp using RLI Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards RLI using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of RLI Corp's stock price.
RLI Corp Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in RLI Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards RLI. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of RLI Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 76.4054 | Short Percent 0.0121 | Short Ratio 2.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 985.5 K | 50 Day MA 82.3507 |
RLI Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to RLI Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in RLI. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding RLI can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around RLI Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of RLI Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about RLI Corp.
RLI Corp Implied Volatility | 0.44 |
RLI Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of RLI Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if RLI Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that RLI Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when RLI Corp's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in RLI Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying RLI because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
RLI Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 73.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current RLI contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that RLI Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0275% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With RLI Corp trading at USD 73.64, that is roughly USD 0.0203 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating RLI Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring RLI Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.44%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
RLI |
RLI Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of RLI Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in RLI Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of RLI Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
RLI Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting RLI Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on RLI Corp's historical news coverage. RLI Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 71.97 and 75.31, respectively. We have considered RLI Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
RLI Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of RLI Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
RLI Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as RLI Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading RLI Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with RLI Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.67 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
73.64 | 73.64 | 0.00 |
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RLI Corp Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January RLI Corp is traded for 73.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. RLI is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on RLI Corp is about 1936.23%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 73.65. About 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company last dividend was issued on the 29th of November 2024. RLI Corp had 2:1 split on the 16th of January 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out RLI Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.RLI Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to RLI Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict RLI Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how RLI Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how RLI Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HMN | Horace Mann Educators | (0.11) | 11 per month | 1.54 | (0.01) | 2.10 | (2.92) | 11.77 | |
| KMPR | Kemper | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.52 | 0.04 | 2.12 | (2.64) | 7.93 | |
| GBLI | Global Indemnity PLC | 0.24 | 5 per month | 1.29 | (0.03) | 2.41 | (2.27) | 8.42 | |
| ARGO-PA | Argo Group International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 0.28 | (0.28) | 1.05 | |
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group | 0.56 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.03 | (2.27) | 10.05 | |
| DGICB | Donegal Group B | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.73 | (5.56) | 15.16 | |
| ARGO | Argo Group International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| STC | Stewart Information Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.68 | (2.97) | 8.85 |
RLI Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine RLI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for RLI using various technical indicators. When you analyze RLI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About RLI Corp Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of RLI Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as RLI Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of RLI Corp based on analysis of RLI Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to RLI Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to RLI Corp's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 5.06 | 4.3 | 3.87 | 4.06 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.51 | 3.99 | 53.56 | 56.23 |
Story Coverage note for RLI Corp
The number of cover stories for RLI Corp depends on current market conditions and RLI Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that RLI Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about RLI Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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RLI Corp Short Properties
RLI Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when RLI Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of RLI Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential RLI Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. RLI Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 92.5 M |
Complementary Tools for RLI Stock analysis
When running RLI Corp's price analysis, check to measure RLI Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy RLI Corp is operating at the current time. Most of RLI Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of RLI Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move RLI Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of RLI Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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