White Mountains Insurance Stock Price Prediction
| WTM Stock | USD 2,015 26.66 1.34% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
63
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.582 | EPS Estimate Current Year 190 | EPS Estimate Next Year 90 | Wall Street Target Price 360 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 99 |
Using White Mountains hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of White Mountains Insurance from the perspective of White Mountains response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in White Mountains to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying White because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
White Mountains after-hype prediction price | USD 1985.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of White Mountains' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
White Mountains After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of White Mountains at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in White Mountains or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of White Mountains, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
White Mountains Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting White Mountains' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on White Mountains' historical news coverage. White Mountains' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,984 and 2,187, respectively. We have considered White Mountains' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
White Mountains is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of White Mountains Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.
White Mountains Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as White Mountains is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading White Mountains backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with White Mountains, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.45 | 2.78 | 0.08 | 9 Events / Month | 12 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2,015 | 1,986 | 0.14 |
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White Mountains Hype Timeline
On the 25th of November White Mountains Insurance is traded for 2,015. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.78, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. White is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1985.56. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 9.39%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.14%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on White Mountains is about 320.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2,015. About 90.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.11. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. White Mountains Insurance recorded earning per share (EPS) of 252.52. The entity last dividend was issued on the 8th of March 2024. The firm had 1:20 split on the September 26, 2012. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out White Mountains Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.White Mountains Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to White Mountains' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict White Mountains' future price movements. Getting to know how White Mountains' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how White Mountains may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
White Mountains Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine White price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for White using various technical indicators. When you analyze White charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About White Mountains Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of White Mountains stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as White Mountains Insurance, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of White Mountains based on analysis of White Mountains hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to White Mountains's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to White Mountains's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001005 | 7.51E-4 | 6.84E-4 | 6.49E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.27 | 3.45 | 1.76 | 1.82 |
Story Coverage note for White Mountains
The number of cover stories for White Mountains depends on current market conditions and White Mountains' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that White Mountains is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about White Mountains' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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White Mountains Short Properties
White Mountains' future price predictability will typically decrease when White Mountains' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of White Mountains Insurance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential White Mountains' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. White Mountains' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |
Check out White Mountains Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of White Mountains. If investors know White will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about White Mountains listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 6.582 | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 252.52 | Revenue Per Share 1.1 K | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.835 |
The market value of White Mountains Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of White that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of White Mountains' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is White Mountains' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because White Mountains' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect White Mountains' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between White Mountains' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if White Mountains is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, White Mountains' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.