Semtech Stock Price Prediction
| SMTC Stock | USD 80.52 0.40 0.50% |
Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.6952 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.1745 | Wall Street Target Price 83.4286 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.445 |
Using Semtech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Semtech from the perspective of Semtech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Semtech using Semtech's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Semtech using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Semtech's stock price.
Semtech Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Semtech's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Semtech. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Semtech stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 56.0971 | Short Percent 0.0687 | Short Ratio 4.01 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.8 M | 50 Day MA 73.8072 |
Semtech Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Semtech's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Semtech. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Semtech can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Semtech. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Semtech's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Semtech.
Semtech Implied Volatility | 0.83 |
Semtech's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Semtech stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Semtech's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Semtech stock will not fluctuate a lot when Semtech's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Semtech to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Semtech because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Semtech after-hype prediction price | USD 79.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Semtech contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Semtech will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0519% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Semtech trading at USD 80.52, that is roughly USD 0.0418 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Semtech's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Semtech options at the current volatility level of 0.83%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Semtech Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Semtech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Semtech After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Semtech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Semtech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Semtech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Semtech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Semtech's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Semtech's historical news coverage. Semtech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 76.29 and 83.11, respectively. We have considered Semtech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Semtech is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Semtech is based on 3 months time horizon.
Semtech Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Semtech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Semtech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Semtech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 3.38 | 0.79 | 0.19 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
80.52 | 79.70 | 1.02 |
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Semtech Hype Timeline
Semtech is at this time traded for 80.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.79, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.19. Semtech is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 79.7. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 115.36%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.02%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Semtech is about 468.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 80.71. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company last dividend was issued on the 5th of September 1980. Semtech had 2:1 split on the 26th of September 2000. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Semtech Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Semtech Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Semtech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Semtech's future price movements. Getting to know how Semtech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Semtech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CAMT | Camtek | 4.35 | 10 per month | 3.04 | 0.06 | 7.61 | (5.48) | 15.59 | |
| ONTO | Onto Innovation | 1.23 | 9 per month | 2.46 | 0.20 | 5.53 | (4.35) | 10.98 | |
| CRUS | Cirrus Logic | 0.41 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.83 | (2.75) | 9.85 | |
| ALGM | Allegro Microsystems | 0.25 | 10 per month | 2.32 | 0.03 | 5.61 | (4.46) | 14.41 | |
| FORM | FormFactor | 2.14 | 10 per month | 3.12 | 0.17 | 6.53 | (5.12) | 32.46 | |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies | (3.40) | 8 per month | 1.74 | (0.02) | 2.54 | (3.16) | 7.84 | |
| OLED | Universal Display | (1.96) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.60 | (3.46) | 11.06 | |
| ARW | Arrow Electronics | (0.14) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.33 | (2.50) | 7.89 | |
| LFUS | Littelfuse | 3.08 | 9 per month | 1.99 | 0.03 | 3.65 | (3.64) | 8.44 | |
| CVLT | CommVault Systems | 1.26 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.42 | (3.87) | 18.78 |
Semtech Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Semtech price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Semtech using various technical indicators. When you analyze Semtech charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Semtech Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Semtech stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Semtech, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Semtech based on analysis of Semtech hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Semtech's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Semtech's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 12.71 | 7.64 | 8.79 | 9.16 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 92.44 | 131.88 | 118.7 | 90.27 |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Complementary Tools for Semtech Stock analysis
When running Semtech's price analysis, check to measure Semtech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Semtech is operating at the current time. Most of Semtech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Semtech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Semtech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Semtech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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