Semtech Stock Price Patterns

SMTC Stock  USD 87.12  0.59  0.68%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Semtech's stock price is about 67. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Semtech, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 67

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Semtech's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Semtech, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Semtech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Semtech from the perspective of Semtech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Semtech to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Semtech because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Semtech after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 86.04  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Semtech Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Semtech Stock refer to our How to Trade Semtech Stock guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Semtech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
78.8382.2795.83
Details

Semtech After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Semtech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Semtech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Semtech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Semtech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Semtech's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Semtech's historical news coverage. Semtech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 82.60 and 89.48, respectively. We have considered Semtech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
87.12
86.04
After-hype Price
89.48
Upside
Semtech is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Semtech is based on 3 months time horizon.

Semtech Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Semtech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Semtech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Semtech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.54 
3.44
 0.00  
  0.23 
0 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
87.12
86.04
1.24 
0.00  
Notes

Semtech Hype Timeline

Semtech is at this time traded for 87.12. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.23. Semtech is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 86.04. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.24%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.54%. The volatility of related hype on Semtech is about 824.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 87.35. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company last dividend was issued on the 5th of September 1980. Semtech had 2:1 split on the 26th of September 2000. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be within a week.
Check out Semtech Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Semtech Stock refer to our How to Trade Semtech Stock guide.

Semtech Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Semtech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Semtech's future price movements. Getting to know how Semtech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Semtech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Semtech Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Semtech price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Semtech using various technical indicators. When you analyze Semtech charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Semtech Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Semtech stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Semtech, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Semtech based on analysis of Semtech hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Semtech's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Semtech's related companies.

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Complementary Tools for Semtech Stock analysis

When running Semtech's price analysis, check to measure Semtech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Semtech is operating at the current time. Most of Semtech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Semtech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Semtech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Semtech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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