Serco (UK) Price Prediction
| SRP Stock | 160.70 0.70 0.44% |
Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.1631 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.157 | Wall Street Target Price 210.308 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
Using Serco hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Serco Group from the perspective of Serco response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Serco to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Serco because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Serco after-hype prediction price | GBX 160.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Serco |
Serco After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Serco at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Serco or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Serco, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Serco Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Serco's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Serco's historical news coverage. Serco's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 159.04 and 162.38, respectively. We have considered Serco's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Serco is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Serco Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Serco Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Serco is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Serco backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Serco, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.67 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 2 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
160.70 | 160.71 | 0.01 |
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Serco Hype Timeline
Serco Group is at this time traded for 160.70on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Serco is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 160.71 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Serco is about 190.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 160.75. The company reported the revenue of 4.87 B. Net Income was 202.4 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 494.3 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Serco Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Serco Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Serco's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Serco's future price movements. Getting to know how Serco's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Serco may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 0R2N | Raytheon Technologies Corp | 3.54 | 3 per month | 1.35 | (0.01) | 1.68 | (1.89) | 4.58 | |
| 0KJD | Planet Fitness Cl | 0.69 | 3 per month | 1.13 | 0.13 | 2.62 | (2.14) | 16.17 | |
| 0HRS | CVS Health Corp | 1.75 | 7 per month | 2.08 | 0.08 | 4.81 | (3.79) | 12.55 | |
| MHC | MyHealthChecked Plc | 0.00 | 2 per month | 1.79 | 0.15 | 8.19 | (3.70) | 28.21 | |
| CNC | Concurrent Technologies Plc | 2.25 | 6 per month | 1.31 | 0.20 | 4.17 | (2.71) | 13.65 | |
| WWH | Worldwide Healthcare Trust | (2.50) | 5 per month | 0.77 | 0.1 | 1.62 | (1.55) | 30.52 | |
| PRES | Pressure Technologies Plc | 1.30 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.59 | (3.47) | 16.24 | |
| OPT | Optima Health plc | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.77 | 0.05 | 2.03 | (1.55) | 7.87 |
Serco Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Serco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Serco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Serco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Serco Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Serco stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Serco Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Serco based on analysis of Serco hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Serco's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Serco's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Serco
The number of cover stories for Serco depends on current market conditions and Serco's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Serco is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Serco's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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Serco Short Properties
Serco's future price predictability will typically decrease when Serco's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Serco Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Serco's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Serco's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 94.4 M |
Complementary Tools for Serco Stock analysis
When running Serco's price analysis, check to measure Serco's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Serco is operating at the current time. Most of Serco's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Serco's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Serco's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Serco to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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