Trico Bancshares Stock Price Patterns
| TCBK Stock | USD 52.63 0.71 1.37% |
Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.17 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.925 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.068 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.222 | Wall Street Target Price 55.8 |
Using TriCo Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TriCo Bancshares from the perspective of TriCo Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards TriCo Bancshares using TriCo Bancshares' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards TriCo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of TriCo Bancshares' stock price.
TriCo Bancshares Short Interest
An investor who is long TriCo Bancshares may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about TriCo Bancshares and may potentially protect profits, hedge TriCo Bancshares with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 43.8189 | Short Percent 0.0209 | Short Ratio 5.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 598.9 K | 50 Day MA 48.5508 |
TriCo Bancshares Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to TriCo Bancshares' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in TriCo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding TriCo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around TriCo Bancshares. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of TriCo Bancshares' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about TriCo Bancshares.
TriCo Bancshares Implied Volatility | 0.99 |
TriCo Bancshares' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of TriCo Bancshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if TriCo Bancshares' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that TriCo Bancshares stock will not fluctuate a lot when TriCo Bancshares' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in TriCo Bancshares to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying TriCo because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
TriCo Bancshares after-hype prediction price | USD 52.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current TriCo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that TriCo Bancshares will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0619% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With TriCo Bancshares trading at USD 52.63, that is roughly USD 0.0326 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating TriCo Bancshares' daily price movement you should consider acquiring TriCo Bancshares options at the current volatility level of 0.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out TriCo Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. TriCo Bancshares After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TriCo Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TriCo Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TriCo Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TriCo Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TriCo Bancshares' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TriCo Bancshares' historical news coverage. TriCo Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.44 and 54.46, respectively. We have considered TriCo Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TriCo Bancshares is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TriCo Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
TriCo Bancshares Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TriCo Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TriCo Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TriCo Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 1.50 | 0.37 | 0.05 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
52.63 | 52.95 | 0.67 |
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TriCo Bancshares Hype Timeline
TriCo Bancshares is at this time traded for 52.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.37, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. TriCo is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 52.95 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 117.19%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.67%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on TriCo Bancshares is about 877.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 52.68. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 533.31 M. Net Income was 121.56 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 407 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out TriCo Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.TriCo Bancshares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TriCo Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TriCo Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how TriCo Bancshares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TriCo Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | 1.96 | 7 per month | 1.18 | 0.07 | 3.46 | (2.49) | 7.37 | |
| GABC | German American Bancorp | (0.29) | 8 per month | 1.12 | 0.08 | 3.31 | (2.01) | 7.83 | |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp | 0.16 | 8 per month | 0.66 | 0.19 | 2.67 | (1.28) | 10.91 | |
| SRCE | 1st Source | (0.17) | 7 per month | 0.83 | 0.16 | 2.21 | (2.02) | 5.76 | |
| STBA | ST Bancorp | 0.90 | 8 per month | 1.25 | 0.17 | 2.62 | (1.64) | 9.17 | |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares | (1.08) | 7 per month | 1.33 | 0.15 | 5.13 | (2.37) | 9.65 | |
| MBIN | Merchants Bancorp | (0.82) | 7 per month | 1.59 | 0.15 | 4.14 | (2.97) | 13.19 | |
| NBHC | National Bank Holdings | 1.04 | 7 per month | 0.99 | 0.12 | 2.85 | (1.34) | 9.76 | |
| FRME | First Merchants | (0.08) | 7 per month | 1.08 | 0.12 | 2.84 | (1.50) | 8.32 | |
| FCF | First Commonwealth Financial | 0.09 | 7 per month | 0.88 | 0.17 | 2.92 | (1.33) | 8.12 |
TriCo Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TriCo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TriCo using various technical indicators. When you analyze TriCo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About TriCo Bancshares Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of TriCo Bancshares stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as TriCo Bancshares, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of TriCo Bancshares based on analysis of TriCo Bancshares hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to TriCo Bancshares's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to TriCo Bancshares's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0279 | 0.0302 | 0.0291 | 0.0289 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.9 | 2.76 | 2.88 | 1.96 |
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Try AI Portfolio ProphetCheck out TriCo Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy TriCo Stock please use our How to buy in TriCo Stock guide.You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TriCo Bancshares. If investors know TriCo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive TriCo Bancshares assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.17 | Dividend Share 1.38 | Earnings Share 3.7 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.078 |
TriCo Bancshares's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on TriCo's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate TriCo Bancshares' intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since TriCo Bancshares' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TriCo Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TriCo Bancshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TriCo Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.