TriCo Bancshares Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TCBK Stock | USD 48.12 0.55 1.16% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of TriCo Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 46.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.21. TriCo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although TriCo Bancshares' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of TriCo Bancshares' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of TriCo Bancshares fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of TriCo Bancshares' share price is at 55. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling TriCo Bancshares, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.182 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.914 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.654 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.945 | Wall Street Target Price 51.1667 |
Using TriCo Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TriCo Bancshares from the perspective of TriCo Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards TriCo Bancshares using TriCo Bancshares' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards TriCo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of TriCo Bancshares' stock price.
TriCo Bancshares Short Interest
An investor who is long TriCo Bancshares may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about TriCo Bancshares and may potentially protect profits, hedge TriCo Bancshares with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 42.8438 | Short Percent 0.0189 | Short Ratio 3.89 | Shares Short Prior Month 575.2 K | 50 Day MA 46.812 |
TriCo Bancshares Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to TriCo Bancshares' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in TriCo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding TriCo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around TriCo Bancshares. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of TriCo Bancshares' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about TriCo Bancshares.
TriCo Bancshares Implied Volatility | 0.79 |
TriCo Bancshares' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of TriCo Bancshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if TriCo Bancshares' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that TriCo Bancshares stock will not fluctuate a lot when TriCo Bancshares' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of TriCo Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 46.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.21. TriCo Bancshares after-hype prediction price | USD 47.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TriCo Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 TriCo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast TriCo Bancshares' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in TriCo Bancshares' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for TriCo Bancshares stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current TriCo Bancshares' open interest, investors have to compare it to TriCo Bancshares' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of TriCo Bancshares is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in TriCo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
TriCo Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TriCo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TriCo using various technical indicators. When you analyze TriCo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TriCo Bancshares Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the TriCo Bancshares' financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1991-03-31 | Previous Quarter 314.3 M | Current Value 298.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 213.1 M |
TriCo Bancshares Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of TriCo Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 46.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TriCo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TriCo Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TriCo Bancshares Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TriCo Bancshares | TriCo Bancshares Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
TriCo Bancshares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TriCo Bancshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TriCo Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.62 and 47.89, respectively. We have considered TriCo Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TriCo Bancshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TriCo Bancshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5475 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.61 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0134 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.2083 |
Predictive Modules for TriCo Bancshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TriCo Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for TriCo Bancshares
For every potential investor in TriCo, whether a beginner or expert, TriCo Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TriCo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TriCo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TriCo Bancshares' price trends.TriCo Bancshares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TriCo Bancshares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TriCo Bancshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TriCo Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TriCo Bancshares Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of TriCo Bancshares' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of TriCo Bancshares' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TriCo Bancshares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TriCo Bancshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TriCo Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TriCo Bancshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TriCo Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
TriCo Bancshares Risk Indicators
The analysis of TriCo Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TriCo Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trico stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.20) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ProphetCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TriCo Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy TriCo Stock please use our How to buy in TriCo Stock guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TriCo Bancshares. If investors know TriCo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about TriCo Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.182 | Dividend Share 1.35 | Earnings Share 3.55 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.081 |
The market value of TriCo Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of TriCo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of TriCo Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is TriCo Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because TriCo Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect TriCo Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TriCo Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TriCo Bancshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TriCo Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.