Ugi Corporation Stock Price Prediction
| UGI Stock | USD 30.61 0.38 1.23% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
70
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.51 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.91 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.035 | Wall Street Target Price 33.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.29) |
Using UGI hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UGI Corporation from the perspective of UGI response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards UGI using UGI's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards UGI using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of UGI's stock price.
UGI Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in UGI's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards UGI. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of UGI stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 25.1913 | Short Percent 0.0454 | Short Ratio 4.52 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.9 M | 50 Day MA 28.2796 |
UGI Corporation Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to UGI's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in UGI. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UGI can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UGI Corporation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of UGI's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about UGI.
UGI Implied Volatility | 0.64 |
UGI's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of UGI Corporation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if UGI's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that UGI stock will not fluctuate a lot when UGI's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in UGI to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying UGI because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
UGI after-hype prediction price | USD 30.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current UGI contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that UGI Corporation will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.04% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With UGI trading at USD 30.61, that is roughly USD 0.0122 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating UGI's daily price movement you should consider acquiring UGI Corporation options at the current volatility level of 0.64%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
UGI |
UGI After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of UGI at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in UGI or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of UGI, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
UGI Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting UGI's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on UGI's historical news coverage. UGI's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.49 and 33.49, respectively. We have considered UGI's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
UGI is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of UGI Corporation is based on 3 months time horizon.
UGI Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as UGI is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UGI backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UGI, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 2.50 | 0.07 | 0.26 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
30.61 | 30.99 | 0.00 |
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UGI Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January UGI Corporation is traded for 30.61. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.26. UGI is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.52%. %. The volatility of related hype on UGI is about 497.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.35. About 87.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.47. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. UGI Corporation has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.65. The entity last dividend was issued on the 16th of December 2024. The firm had 3:2 split on the 8th of September 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out UGI Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.UGI Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to UGI's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict UGI's future price movements. Getting to know how UGI's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how UGI may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NJR | NewJersey Resources | 0.08 | 11 per month | 1.29 | (0.02) | 2.13 | (2.27) | 7.20 | |
| ATO | Atmos Energy | (1.28) | 11 per month | 1.18 | (0.07) | 2.06 | (1.78) | 5.58 | |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | 0.37 | 7 per month | 1.53 | (0.03) | 2.40 | (2.38) | 8.69 | |
| SR | Spire Inc | (3.75) | 10 per month | 1.67 | 0.04 | 3.15 | (2.63) | 9.26 | |
| NWN | Northwest Natural Gas | 0.02 | 8 per month | 1.38 | (0.05) | 2.01 | (2.20) | 9.06 | |
| OGS | One Gas | 1.09 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.28 | (2.06) | 10.43 | |
| NIMC | NiSource Unit | 0.44 | 3 per month | 0.78 | (0.12) | 1.07 | (1.11) | 5.53 | |
| UGIC | UGI Corp Unit | (0.86) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.61 | (3.02) | 12.21 | |
| NI | NiSource | (0.63) | 10 per month | 1.17 | 0.02 | 2.08 | (2.04) | 6.69 |
UGI Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UGI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UGI using various technical indicators. When you analyze UGI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About UGI Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of UGI stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as UGI Corporation, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of UGI based on analysis of UGI hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to UGI's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to UGI's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0601 | 0.0692 | 0.0734 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.73 | 0.88 | 0.56 |
Story Coverage note for UGI
The number of cover stories for UGI depends on current market conditions and UGI's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that UGI is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about UGI's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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UGI Short Properties
UGI's future price predictability will typically decrease when UGI's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of UGI Corporation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential UGI's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UGI's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 215.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 213 M |
Complementary Tools for UGI Stock analysis
When running UGI's price analysis, check to measure UGI's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UGI is operating at the current time. Most of UGI's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UGI's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UGI's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UGI to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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