Upbound Group Stock Price Prediction
| UPBD Stock | 29.45 0.34 1.14% |
Momentum 37
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.995 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.99 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.8056 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.3922 | Wall Street Target Price 41.1111 |
Using Upbound hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Upbound Group from the perspective of Upbound response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Upbound using Upbound's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Upbound using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Upbound's stock price.
Upbound Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Upbound's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Upbound. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Upbound stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 31.3261 | Short Percent 0.0622 | Short Ratio 4.89 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.8 M | 50 Day MA 30.3474 |
Upbound Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Upbound's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Upbound. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Upbound can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Upbound Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Upbound's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Upbound.
Upbound Implied Volatility | 1.01 |
Upbound's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Upbound Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Upbound's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Upbound stock will not fluctuate a lot when Upbound's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Upbound to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Upbound because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Upbound after-hype prediction price | USD 29.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Upbound contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Upbound Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0631% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Upbound trading at USD 29.45, that is roughly USD 0.0186 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Upbound's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Upbound Group options at the current volatility level of 1.01%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Upbound |
Upbound After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Upbound at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Upbound or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Upbound, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Upbound Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Upbound's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Upbound's historical news coverage. Upbound's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.72 and 31.18, respectively. We have considered Upbound's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Upbound is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Upbound Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Upbound Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Upbound is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Upbound backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Upbound, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.73 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
29.45 | 29.45 | 0.00 |
|
Upbound Hype Timeline
Upbound Group is at this time traded for 29.45. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.1. Upbound is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Upbound is about 222.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.55. About 87.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Upbound was at this time reported as 11.19. The company last dividend was issued on the 18th of December 2024. Upbound Group had 5:2 split on the 2nd of September 2003. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Upbound Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Upbound Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Upbound's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Upbound's future price movements. Getting to know how Upbound's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Upbound may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LQRCF | Black Mammoth Metals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.72 | 0.02 | 10.29 | (4.41) | 31.58 | |
| HDSN | Hudson Technologies | 0.08 | 9 per month | 1.80 | (0) | 3.59 | (2.88) | 9.59 | |
| GTY | Getty Realty | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.40 | (2.10) | 5.80 | |
| VMC | Vulcan Materials | 0.84 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.01 | (1.75) | 4.87 | |
| ABG | Asbury Automotive Group | 5.84 | 7 per month | 1.38 | 0.11 | 3.07 | (2.72) | 14.64 | |
| IONR | ioneer Ltd American | (0.23) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.70 | (6.07) | 27.98 | |
| SUM | Summit Materials | (0.09) | 7 per month | 0.34 | 0.13 | 1.54 | (0.79) | 9.88 | |
| EYE | National Vision Holdings | (0.22) | 7 per month | 2.31 | 0.05 | 4.52 | (4.45) | 10.15 |
Upbound Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Upbound price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Upbound using various technical indicators. When you analyze Upbound charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Upbound Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Upbound stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Upbound Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Upbound based on analysis of Upbound hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Upbound's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Upbound's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0652 | 0.0445 | 0.04 | 0.0211 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.29 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 1.07 |
Story Coverage note for Upbound
The number of cover stories for Upbound depends on current market conditions and Upbound's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Upbound is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Upbound's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Upbound Short Properties
Upbound's future price predictability will typically decrease when Upbound's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Upbound Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Upbound's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Upbound's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 55 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 93.7 M |
Complementary Tools for Upbound Stock analysis
When running Upbound's price analysis, check to measure Upbound's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Upbound is operating at the current time. Most of Upbound's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Upbound's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Upbound's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Upbound to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Price Transformation Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets | |
| Global Correlations Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets | |
| ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world | |
| Theme Ratings Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Funds Screener Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges | |
| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| AI Portfolio Architect Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities | |
| Premium Stories Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope | |
| Economic Indicators Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing |