Urban Outfitters Stock Price Prediction
| URBN Stock | USD 69.61 0.37 0.53% |
Momentum 38
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.164 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.2535 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.7328 | Wall Street Target Price 85.25 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.1793 |
Using Urban Outfitters hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Urban Outfitters from the perspective of Urban Outfitters response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Urban Outfitters using Urban Outfitters' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Urban using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Urban Outfitters' stock price.
Urban Outfitters Short Interest
An investor who is long Urban Outfitters may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Urban Outfitters and may potentially protect profits, hedge Urban Outfitters with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 69.3291 | Short Percent 0.1434 | Short Ratio 3.94 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.5 M | 50 Day MA 73.8652 |
Urban Outfitters Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Urban Outfitters' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Urban. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Urban can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Urban Outfitters. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Urban Outfitters' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Urban Outfitters.
Urban Outfitters Implied Volatility | 0.65 |
Urban Outfitters' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Urban Outfitters stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Urban Outfitters' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Urban Outfitters stock will not fluctuate a lot when Urban Outfitters' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Urban Outfitters to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Urban because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Urban Outfitters after-hype prediction price | USD 69.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Urban contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Urban Outfitters will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0406% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Urban Outfitters trading at USD 69.61, that is roughly USD 0.0283 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Urban Outfitters' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Urban Outfitters options at the current volatility level of 0.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Urban Outfitters Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Urban Outfitters After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Urban Outfitters at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Urban Outfitters or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Urban Outfitters, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Urban Outfitters Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Urban Outfitters' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Urban Outfitters' historical news coverage. Urban Outfitters' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 65.79 and 72.93, respectively. We have considered Urban Outfitters' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Urban Outfitters is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Urban Outfitters is based on 3 months time horizon.
Urban Outfitters Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Urban Outfitters is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Urban Outfitters backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Urban Outfitters, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 3.57 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
69.61 | 69.36 | 0.36 |
|
Urban Outfitters Hype Timeline
Urban Outfitters is at this time traded for 69.61. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.15. Urban is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 69.36. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.36%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Urban Outfitters is about 421.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 69.76. About 28.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The book value of Urban Outfitters was at this time reported as 30.14. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.3. Urban Outfitters recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.28. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 2:1 split on the 26th of September 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Urban Outfitters Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Urban Outfitters Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Urban Outfitters' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Urban Outfitters' future price movements. Getting to know how Urban Outfitters' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Urban Outfitters may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BOOT | Boot Barn Holdings | 10.61 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.65 | (3.58) | 11.44 | |
| M | Macys Inc | (0.36) | 16 per month | 2.05 | 0.03 | 5.52 | (3.68) | 14.51 | |
| BBWI | Bath Body Works | (1.37) | 32 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.78 | (4.50) | 27.08 | |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | (1.82) | 8 per month | 1.27 | 0.11 | 3.50 | (2.18) | 8.69 | |
| VFC | VF Corporation | 0.68 | 10 per month | 2.93 | 0.08 | 5.39 | (4.83) | 16.16 | |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels Resorts | (1.31) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.15 | (3.12) | 8.27 | |
| MTN | Vail Resorts | (2.62) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.44 | (3.39) | 13.29 | |
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | (0.01) | 9 per month | 1.37 | (0.03) | 3.92 | (2.69) | 10.34 | |
| THO | Thor Industries | 4.81 | 9 per month | 2.31 | 0.0003 | 3.76 | (3.01) | 14.53 | |
| LTH | Life Time Group | (0.14) | 9 per month | 1.69 | 0.06 | 3.90 | (3.10) | 9.67 |
Urban Outfitters Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Urban price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Urban using various technical indicators. When you analyze Urban charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Urban Outfitters Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Urban Outfitters stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Urban Outfitters, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Urban Outfitters based on analysis of Urban Outfitters hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Urban Outfitters's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Urban Outfitters's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 4.75 | 4.87 | 4.38 | 4.77 | PTB Ratio | 1.67 | 2.08 | 2.39 | 3.8 |
Pair Trading with Urban Outfitters
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Urban Outfitters position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Urban Outfitters will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Urban Stock
Moving against Urban Stock
| 0.68 | AZI | Autozi Internet Tech Buyout Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | STP | Step One Clothing | PairCorr |
| 0.55 | PMV | Premier Investments | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | TRNR | Interactive Strength | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | PLCE | Childrens Place | PairCorr |
| 0.38 | APVO | Aptevo Therapeutics Downward Rally | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Urban Outfitters could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Urban Outfitters when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Urban Outfitters - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Urban Outfitters to buy it.
The correlation of Urban Outfitters is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Urban Outfitters moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Urban Outfitters moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Urban Outfitters can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Urban Outfitters Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Urban Stock, please use our How to Invest in Urban Outfitters guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Will Specialty Retail sector continue expanding? Could Urban diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Urban Outfitters. If investors know Urban will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Urban Outfitters data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.164 | Earnings Share 5.28 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.123 | Return On Assets |
Urban Outfitters's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Urban's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Urban Outfitters' intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Urban Outfitters' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Urban Outfitters' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Urban Outfitters is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Urban Outfitters' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.