Vail Resorts Stock Price Patterns
| MTN Stock | USD 134.98 0.81 0.60% |
Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.105 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.83 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.9226 | Wall Street Target Price 174.6364 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (5.17) |
Using Vail Resorts hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vail Resorts from the perspective of Vail Resorts response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vail Resorts using Vail Resorts' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vail using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vail Resorts' stock price.
Vail Resorts Short Interest
An investor who is long Vail Resorts may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Vail Resorts and may potentially protect profits, hedge Vail Resorts with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 149.2212 | Short Percent 0.1729 | Short Ratio 3.47 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.7 M | 50 Day MA 141.1174 |
Vail Resorts Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Vail Resorts' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vail. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vail can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vail Resorts. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Vail Resorts' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Vail Resorts.
Vail Resorts Implied Volatility | 0.46 |
Vail Resorts' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vail Resorts stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vail Resorts' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vail Resorts stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vail Resorts' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Vail Resorts to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Vail because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Vail Resorts after-hype prediction price | USD 135.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Vail contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Vail Resorts will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0288% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Vail Resorts trading at USD 134.98, that is roughly USD 0.0388 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Vail Resorts' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Vail Resorts options at the current volatility level of 0.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Vail Resorts Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vail Resorts' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vail Resorts After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vail Resorts at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vail Resorts or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vail Resorts, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vail Resorts Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vail Resorts' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vail Resorts' historical news coverage. Vail Resorts' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 133.26 and 137.84, respectively. We have considered Vail Resorts' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vail Resorts is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vail Resorts is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vail Resorts Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vail Resorts is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vail Resorts backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vail Resorts, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 2.29 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
134.98 | 135.55 | 0.18 |
|
Vail Resorts Hype Timeline
On the 5th of February Vail Resorts is traded for 134.98. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.24, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Vail is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 135.55. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 87.4%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Vail Resorts is about 251.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 134.90. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.0. Vail Resorts recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.94. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of December 2025. The firm had 1:1 split on the 6th of November 2008. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Vail Resorts Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Vail Resorts Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vail Resorts' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vail Resorts' future price movements. Getting to know how Vail Resorts' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vail Resorts may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LNW | Light Wonder | (2.01) | 8 per month | 1.62 | 0.08 | 3.55 | (2.94) | 14.31 | |
| SGHC | SGHC Limited | (0.56) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.43 | (5.92) | 25.88 | |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels Resorts | (1.79) | 8 per month | 1.51 | 0 | 3.22 | (2.87) | 9.57 | |
| THO | Thor Industries | (0.96) | 12 per month | 1.98 | 0.08 | 4.33 | (2.29) | 14.53 | |
| BYD | Boyd Gaming | (0.49) | 10 per month | 1.10 | 0.06 | 2.56 | (1.86) | 6.83 | |
| LTH | Life Time Group | 0.67 | 10 per month | 1.50 | 0.12 | 3.94 | (3.06) | 9.67 | |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | (2.25) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.22 | (2.89) | 8.26 | |
| URBN | Urban Outfitters | (2.31) | 12 per month | 3.18 | 0.05 | 5.28 | (4.20) | 25.85 | |
| REYN | Reynolds Consumer Products | 0.21 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.08 | (2.29) | 7.99 | |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | 0.37 | 10 per month | 1.29 | 0.15 | 3.79 | (2.89) | 8.69 |
Vail Resorts Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vail price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vail using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vail charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Vail Resorts Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Vail Resorts stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Vail Resorts, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Vail Resorts based on analysis of Vail Resorts hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Vail Resorts's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Vail Resorts's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.047 | 0.0588 | 0.0529 | 0.0555 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.39 | 1.88 | 1.7 | 1.94 |
Pair Trading with Vail Resorts
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Vail Resorts position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Vail Resorts will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Vail Stock
| 0.58 | RAVE | Rave Restaurant Group | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | MTY | MTY Food Group | PairCorr |
| 0.39 | SKC | Skycity Entertainment | PairCorr |
| 0.38 | SGR | The Star Entertainment | PairCorr |
| 0.38 | WING | Wingstop | PairCorr |
| 0.36 | YUMC | Yum China Holdings Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Vail Resorts could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Vail Resorts when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Vail Resorts - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Vail Resorts to buy it.
The correlation of Vail Resorts is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Vail Resorts moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Vail Resorts moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Vail Resorts can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Vail Resorts Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Vail Stock, please use our How to Invest in Vail Resorts guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Will Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector continue expanding? Could Vail diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vail Resorts. Expected growth trajectory for Vail significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Vail Resorts data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.105 | Dividend Share 8.88 | Earnings Share 6.94 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.041 |
The market value of Vail Resorts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vail that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vail Resorts' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vail Resorts' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Vail Resorts' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vail Resorts' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Vail Resorts' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Vail Resorts represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Vail Resorts' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.