American Eagle Outfitters Stock Market Value
| AEO Stock | USD 16.55 0.15 0.91% |
| Symbol | American |
American Eagle Outfitters Price To Book Ratio
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Eagle. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Eagle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.568 | Earnings Share 1.17 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.075 | Return On Assets |
The market value of American Eagle Outfitters is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Eagle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Eagle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Eagle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Eagle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Eagle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Eagle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Eagle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
American Eagle 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Eagle's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Eagle.
| 09/03/2024 |
| 01/31/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American Eagle on September 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Eagle Outfitters or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Eagle over 150 days. American Eagle is related to or competes with Urban Outfitters, Foot Locker, Childrens Place, Abercrombie Fitch, Lululemon Athletica, and Burlington Stores. American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer that provides clothing, accessories, and personal care ... More
American Eagle Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Eagle's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Eagle Outfitters upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.11) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 20.4 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.26) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.61 |
American Eagle Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Eagle's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Eagle's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Eagle historical prices to predict the future American Eagle's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.25) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.53) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.55) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Eagle Outfitters Backtested Returns
American Eagle Outfitters secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0615, which signifies that the company had a -0.0615 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. American Eagle Outfitters exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm American Eagle's risk adjusted performance of (0.05), and Mean Deviation of 1.88 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.4, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, American Eagle's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding American Eagle is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, American Eagle Outfitters has a negative expected return of -0.19%. Please make sure to confirm American Eagle's maximum drawdown, and the relationship between the information ratio and accumulation distribution , to decide if American Eagle Outfitters performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.3 |
Weak reverse predictability
American Eagle Outfitters has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Eagle time series from 3rd of September 2024 to 17th of November 2024 and 17th of November 2024 to 31st of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Eagle Outfitters price movement. The serial correlation of -0.3 indicates that nearly 30.0% of current American Eagle price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.3 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.01 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.04 |
American Eagle Outfitters lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American Eagle stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Eagle's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Eagle returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Eagle has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American Eagle regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Eagle stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Eagle stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Eagle stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American Eagle Lagged Returns
When evaluating American Eagle's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Eagle stock have on its future price. American Eagle autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Eagle autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Eagle stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Eagle Outfitters.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with American Eagle
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Eagle position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Eagle will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with American Stock
Moving against American Stock
| 0.7 | RH | RH | PairCorr |
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| 0.44 | AN | AutoNation | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | VSCO | Victorias Secret | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Eagle could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Eagle when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Eagle - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Eagle Outfitters to buy it.
The correlation of American Eagle is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Eagle moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Eagle Outfitters moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Eagle can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out American Eagle Correlation, American Eagle Volatility and American Eagle Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Eagle. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
American Eagle technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.