Azul SA (Brazil) Market Value
| AZUL4 Preferred Stock | BRL 5.40 0.43 8.65% |
| Symbol | Azul |
Azul SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Azul SA's preferred stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Azul SA.
| 08/28/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Azul SA on August 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Azul SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Azul SA over 90 days. Azul SA is related to or competes with Gol Linhas, CVC Brasil, IRB Brasil, Magazine Luiza, and Embraer SA. Azul S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services in Brazil More
Azul SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Azul SA's preferred stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Azul SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 32.6 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.33) | |||
| Potential Upside | 10.91 |
Azul SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Azul SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Azul SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Azul SA historical prices to predict the future Azul SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.37) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.52) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.6067 |
Azul SA Backtested Returns
Azul SA secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0323, which signifies that the company had a -0.0323% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Azul SA exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Azul SA's Standard Deviation of 6.75, risk adjusted performance of (0.04), and Mean Deviation of 4.47 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.76, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Azul SA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Azul SA is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Azul SA has a negative expected return of -0.23%. Please make sure to confirm Azul SA's accumulation distribution, day typical price, and the relationship between the skewness and rate of daily change , to decide if Azul SA performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.36 |
Poor reverse predictability
Azul SA has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Azul SA time series from 28th of August 2024 to 12th of October 2024 and 12th of October 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Azul SA price movement. The serial correlation of -0.36 indicates that just about 36.0% of current Azul SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.36 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.44 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.15 |
Azul SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Azul SA preferred stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Azul SA's preferred stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Azul SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Azul SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the preferred stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Azul SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Azul SA preferred stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Azul SA preferred stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Azul SA preferred stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Azul SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating Azul SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Azul SA preferred stock have on its future price. Azul SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Azul SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between Azul SA preferred stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Azul SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Azul Preferred Stock Analysis
When running Azul SA's price analysis, check to measure Azul SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Azul SA is operating at the current time. Most of Azul SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Azul SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Azul SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Azul SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.