1st Summit Bancorp Stock Market Value
| FSMK Stock | USD 28.00 0.22 0.79% |
| Symbol | 1ST |
1ST SUMMIT 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to 1ST SUMMIT's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of 1ST SUMMIT.
| 10/28/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in 1ST SUMMIT on October 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP or generate 0.0% return on investment in 1ST SUMMIT over 30 days. 1ST SUMMIT is related to or competes with Apollo Bancorp, Oregon Pacific, Farmers Bank, Community Bankers, CCSB Financial, Bank of Utica, and Delhi Bank. 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP of Johnstown, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for 1ST SUMMIT BANK that provides various ban... More
1ST SUMMIT Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure 1ST SUMMIT's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.63 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.54) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.85 |
1ST SUMMIT Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for 1ST SUMMIT's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as 1ST SUMMIT's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use 1ST SUMMIT historical prices to predict the future 1ST SUMMIT's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0594 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0887 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.80) |
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP Backtested Returns
As of now, 1ST Pink Sheet is very steady. 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.13, which signifies that the company had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm 1ST SUMMIT's Downside Deviation of 2.0, mean deviation of 0.6451, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0594 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. 1ST SUMMIT has a performance score of 10 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0967, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning 1ST SUMMIT are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, 1ST SUMMIT is likely to outperform the market. 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP now shows a risk of 1.12%. Please confirm 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day typical price , to decide if 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.03 |
Virtually no predictability
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between 1ST SUMMIT time series from 28th of October 2024 to 12th of November 2024 and 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP price movement. The serial correlation of 0.03 indicates that only 3.0% of current 1ST SUMMIT price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.03 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.77 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
1ST SUMMIT BANCORP lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting 1ST SUMMIT's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of 1ST SUMMIT returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that 1ST SUMMIT has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
1ST SUMMIT regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
1ST SUMMIT Lagged Returns
When evaluating 1ST SUMMIT's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet have on its future price. 1ST SUMMIT autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, 1ST SUMMIT autocorrelation shows the relationship between 1ST SUMMIT pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in 1ST SUMMIT BANCORP.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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1ST SUMMIT financial ratios help investors to determine whether 1ST Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 1ST with respect to the benefits of owning 1ST SUMMIT security.