Marathon Oil (Brazil) Market Value
| M1RO34 Stock | BRL 170.15 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | Marathon |
Marathon Oil 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Marathon Oil's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Marathon Oil.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Marathon Oil on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Marathon Oil or generate 0.0% return on investment in Marathon Oil over 30 days. Marathon Oil is related to or competes with Petro Rio, Banco BTG, Ambipar Participaes, Mliuz SA, and Pet Center. Marathon Oil Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States and Equatori... More
Marathon Oil Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Marathon Oil's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Marathon Oil upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.62 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0331 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.81 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.77) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.28 |
Marathon Oil Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Marathon Oil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Marathon Oil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Marathon Oil historical prices to predict the future Marathon Oil's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0805 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.126 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0146 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3651 |
Marathon Oil Backtested Returns
At this point, Marathon Oil is very steady. Marathon Oil has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0624, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0624% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-five technical indicators for Marathon Oil, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Marathon Oil's Mean Deviation of 1.01, downside deviation of 4.62, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0805 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.13%. Marathon Oil has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.51, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Marathon Oil's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Marathon Oil is expected to be smaller as well. Marathon Oil right now secures a risk of 2.08%. Please verify Marathon Oil total risk alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to decide if Marathon Oil will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | 0.70 |
Good predictability
Marathon Oil has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Marathon Oil time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Marathon Oil price movement. The serial correlation of 0.7 indicates that around 70.0% of current Marathon Oil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.7 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 1.0 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.94 |
Marathon Oil lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Marathon Oil stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Marathon Oil's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Marathon Oil returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Marathon Oil has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Marathon Oil regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Marathon Oil stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Marathon Oil stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Marathon Oil stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Marathon Oil Lagged Returns
When evaluating Marathon Oil's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Marathon Oil stock have on its future price. Marathon Oil autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Marathon Oil autocorrelation shows the relationship between Marathon Oil stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Marathon Oil.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Marathon Stock
Marathon Oil financial ratios help investors to determine whether Marathon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Marathon with respect to the benefits of owning Marathon Oil security.