Merck Co Stock Market Value
| MRK Stock | 24.65 0.52 2.07% |
| Symbol | Merck |
Merck 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Merck's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Merck.
| 12/14/2025 |
| 01/13/2026 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Merck on December 14, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Merck Co or generate 0.0% return on investment in Merck over 30 days. Merck is related to or competes with Precious Metals, CubicFarm Systems, Verizon Communications, Chemtrade Logistics, IDEX Metals, Enduro Metals, and North American. More
Merck Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Merck's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Merck Co upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.192 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.66 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.07) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.73 |
Merck Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Merck's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Merck's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Merck historical prices to predict the future Merck's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1908 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3669 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2148 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2346 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.7656 |
Merck Backtested Returns
Merck appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Merck has Sharpe Ratio of 0.26, which conveys that the firm had a 0.26 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Merck, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise Merck's Downside Deviation of 1.39, risk adjusted performance of 0.1908, and Mean Deviation of 1.29 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Merck holds a performance score of 20. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.54, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Merck's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Merck is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Merck's expected short fall, day median price, and the relationship between the potential upside and accumulation distribution , to make a quick decision on whether Merck's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.93 |
Excellent predictability
Merck Co has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Merck time series from 14th of December 2025 to 29th of December 2025 and 29th of December 2025 to 13th of January 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Merck price movement. The serial correlation of 0.93 indicates that approximately 93.0% of current Merck price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.93 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.88 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.25 |
Merck lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Merck stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Merck's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Merck returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Merck has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Merck regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Merck stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Merck stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Merck stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Merck Lagged Returns
When evaluating Merck's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Merck stock have on its future price. Merck autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Merck autocorrelation shows the relationship between Merck stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Merck Co.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Merck
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Merck position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Merck will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Merck Stock
Moving against Merck Stock
| 0.6 | MSFT | Microsoft Corp CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.59 | MSFT | Microsoft CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | NVDA | NVIDIA CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.39 | NVDA | Nvidia CDR | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Merck could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Merck when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Merck - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Merck Co to buy it.
The correlation of Merck is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Merck moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Merck moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Merck can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Merck Stock
Merck financial ratios help investors to determine whether Merck Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Merck with respect to the benefits of owning Merck security.