Merck Co Stock Price Patterns
| MRK Stock | 27.83 0.87 3.23% |
Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.87 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.037 |
Using Merck hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Merck Co from the perspective of Merck response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Merck to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Merck because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Merck after-hype prediction price | CAD 27.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Merck |
Merck After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Merck at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Merck or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Merck, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Merck Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Merck's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Merck's historical news coverage. Merck's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.44 and 29.54, respectively. We have considered Merck's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Merck is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Merck is based on 3 months time horizon.
Merck Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Merck is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Merck backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Merck, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 1.58 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
27.83 | 27.99 | 0.57 |
|
Merck Hype Timeline
Merck is now traded for 27.83on NEO Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Merck is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 27.99 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is forecasted to be 0.57%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.34%. The volatility of related hype on Merck is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.83. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Merck Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Merck Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Merck's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Merck's future price movements. Getting to know how Merck's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Merck may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HD | HOME DEPOT CDR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.28 | 0.01 | 2.22 | (2.01) | 7.69 | |
| IGBT-UN | 2028 Investment Grade | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.51 | (0.14) | 1.02 | (1.02) | 3.72 | |
| DGL-P | DGL Investments No1 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| WCM-A | Wilmington Capital Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.89 | (4.00) | 20.93 | |
| HAM | Highwood Asset Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.34 | (3.72) | 10.15 | |
| WI | Western Investment | 0.00 | 6 per month | 2.06 | 0.24 | 3.57 | (3.23) | 14.52 | |
| BN-PK | Brookfield Asset Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 0.62 | (0.47) | 2.11 | |
| LNF | Leons Furniture Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.56 | (0.04) | 2.07 | (2.12) | 9.71 |
Merck Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Merck price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Merck using various technical indicators. When you analyze Merck charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Merck Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Merck stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Merck Co, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Merck based on analysis of Merck hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Merck's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Merck's related companies.
Pair Trading with Merck
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Merck position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Merck will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Merck Stock
| 0.89 | JNJ | Johnson Johnson CDR | PairCorr |
| 1.0 | MRK | Merck CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | AMGN | Amgen CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | GILD | Gilead Sciences CDR | PairCorr |
Moving against Merck Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Merck could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Merck when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Merck - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Merck Co to buy it.
The correlation of Merck is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Merck moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Merck moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Merck can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Merck Stock
Merck financial ratios help investors to determine whether Merck Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Merck with respect to the benefits of owning Merck security.