Nicholas Fund Inc Fund Market Value
| NICSX Fund | USD 100.95 0.43 0.42% |
| Symbol | Nicholas |
Nicholas Fund 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Nicholas Fund's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Nicholas Fund.
| 10/28/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Nicholas Fund on October 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Nicholas Fund Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Nicholas Fund over 30 days. Nicholas Fund is related to or competes with Growth Fund, HUMANA, Barloworld, Morningstar Unconstrained, Thrivent High, High-yield Municipal, and Via Renewables. The fund primarily invests in common stocks of domestic small, medium- and large-sized companies believed to have growth... More
Nicholas Fund Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Nicholas Fund's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Nicholas Fund Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.7727 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.92 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.16) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.11 |
Nicholas Fund Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Nicholas Fund's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Nicholas Fund's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Nicholas Fund historical prices to predict the future Nicholas Fund's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1104 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0036 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1252 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nicholas Fund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Nicholas Fund Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Nicholas Mutual Fund to be very steady. Nicholas Fund has Sharpe Ratio of 0.15, which conveys that the entity had a 0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Nicholas Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please verify Nicholas Fund's Mean Deviation of 0.5477, risk adjusted performance of 0.1104, and Downside Deviation of 0.7727 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.11%. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.77, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Nicholas Fund's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Nicholas Fund is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.84 |
Very good predictability
Nicholas Fund Inc has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Nicholas Fund time series from 28th of October 2024 to 12th of November 2024 and 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Nicholas Fund price movement. The serial correlation of 0.84 indicates that around 84.0% of current Nicholas Fund price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.84 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.29 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.32 |
Nicholas Fund lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Nicholas Fund mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Nicholas Fund's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Nicholas Fund returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Nicholas Fund has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Nicholas Fund regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Nicholas Fund mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Nicholas Fund mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Nicholas Fund mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Nicholas Fund Lagged Returns
When evaluating Nicholas Fund's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Nicholas Fund mutual fund have on its future price. Nicholas Fund autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Nicholas Fund autocorrelation shows the relationship between Nicholas Fund mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Nicholas Fund Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Nicholas Mutual Fund
Nicholas Fund financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nicholas Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nicholas with respect to the benefits of owning Nicholas Fund security.
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