Capitol Federal Financial Stock Performance

CFFN Stock  USD 7.69  -0.06  -0.77%   
Capitol Federal's performance page tracks how Capitol Federal has rewarded shareholders across different timeframes. The stock's expected return over 3 months is 0.22%, complemented by a 4.42% dividend yield.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Balanced
 
Weak
 
Strong
Across the last 90 days, the risk-adjusted return profile of Capitol Federal Financial is weaker than 11% of the global equities and portfolios reviewed by Macroaxis. This score becomes more informative when compared with downside risk, Sharpe Ratio, and current trend stability. In spite of very unfluctuating technical and fundamental indicators, Capitol Federal displayed solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakout point. Learn More

Actual Historical Performance (%)

 One Day Return
-0.77
 Five Day Return
0.26
 Year To Date Return
12.92
 Ten Year Return
-42.35
 All Time Return
80.09
 Forward Dividend Yield
4.4%
 Payout Ratio
52.7%
 Forward Dividend Rate
0.34
 Dividend Date
2026-02-20
 Ex Dividend Date
2026-02-06

Performance Related Modules

Earnings links to analyst estimate history and revisions, Ownership shows shareholder mix, Profitability focuses on margin and return ratios, Liquidity covers cash-flow strength and short-term funding capacity, and Fundamentals groups the broader financial ratio set.

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 672.00 in Capitol Federal Financial on January 26, 2026 and sold it today you would have earned a total of $ 97.00 from holding Capitol Federal Financial or generated 14.43% return on investment over 90 days. Capitol Federal Financial is currently generating a 0.2223% daily expected return and carries 1.5151% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In relative terms, Capitol exhibits above-average volatility, exceeding roughly 87% of comparable stocks, and CFFN has trailed 96% of traded instruments in return over the 90-day horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This comparison focuses on expected return, realized volatility, and risk efficiency versus the market. It is informative when expected return is read together with volatility rather than in isolation. Given a 90-day horizon, CFFN generates 1.61 times more return on investment than the market. However, CFFN is 1.61 times more volatile than its market benchmark. Its risk-adjusted efficiency stands at about 0.15% per unit of risk. Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.0% per unit of risk.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

Mean reversion in Capitol Stock pricing reflects the documented tendency for stocks to gravitate toward equilibrium. While this pattern holds broadly, certain stocks can remain mispriced for extended periods before correction.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
7.69 90 days 7.69
about 8.93
Using a normal distribution model, the likelihood of Capitol Federal moving above the current price in 90 days from now is about 8.93 . Past return patterns over this horizon reflect a distribution that has favored above-current-price scenarios. (The curve shows where outcomes have been clustering for Capitol Stock over the next 90 days). The curve width gives a practical read on how much uncertainty surrounds Capitol Stock over this horizon.
Given a 90-day horizon, Capitol Federal has a beta of 0.99 suggesting Capitol Federal Financial market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Capitol Federal tends to follow. Additionally, Capitol Federal Financial has an alpha of 0.1629, implying that it can generate a 0.1629 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   Capitol Federal Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Capitol Federal

Forecasting Capitol Federal Financial requires combining quantitative signals with evolving sentiment and fundamental trends. Each approach has strengths and limitations, making diversified forecasting strategies especially important for Capitol Federal Financial.
Mean reversion is the tendency of Capitol Federal's price to return to its historical average after periods of extreme deviation. Some analysts monitor this tendency by comparing Capitol Federal's price extremes to fundamental value.
Sentiment
Range
LowSentimentHigh
6.087.609.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowIntrinsicHigh
6.728.249.76
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
6.057.569.08
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
7.057.758.60
Details
Capitol Federal is positioned within its peer group by benchmarking margins, returns, and multiples. This peer-relative view identifies where Capitol Federal leads, trails, or tracks its competitive set.

Primary Risk Indicators

Over the past two decades, the stock market has experienced significant volatility affecting Capitol Federal. Capitol Federal has seen dramatic price moves that have reshaped risk profiles for its holders.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.16
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.99
σ
Overall volatility
0.29
Ir
Information ratio 0.10

Investor Alerts and Insights

Targeted alerts for Capitol Federal provide the responsiveness needed to evaluate market conditions and assess potential outcomes. These notifications for Capitol Federal Financial help investors make timely decisions in response to significant stock events.
Capitol Federal has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Heritage Financial Q 1 Earnings Surpass Estimates

Price Density Drivers

Price movements in Capitol Federal are influenced by the balance of buyer and seller positioning dynamics. Monitoring key indicators provides context for understanding when price movements are fundamental versus tactical.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding130 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.1 B

Capitol Federal Fundamentals Growth

The market price of Capitol Stock is shaped by investors' expectations for Capitol Federal's financial performance. Revenue and earnings trends, operating margins, and capital structure decisions all play a role in Capitol Stock pricing.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Capitol Federal risk-adjusted performance measures whether returns compensate for the volatility borne by holders. Sharpe and Sortino ratios frame return efficiency relative to total and downside risk. Capitol Federal shows ROE of 7.05%, ROA of 0.7%.

Capitol Federal Financial inputs come from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and are mapped into a consistent reporting framework. Analyst inputs may be included when coverage is available. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Rifka Kats, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board