Cosan SA (Brazil) Performance

CSAN3 Stock  BRL 5.65  0.17  3.10%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.16, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Cosan SA will likely underperform. At this point, Cosan SA has a negative expected return of -0.081%. Please make sure to confirm Cosan SA's potential upside, kurtosis, and the relationship between the value at risk and skewness , to decide if Cosan SA performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Cosan SA has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of comparatively stable basic indicators, Cosan SA is not utilizing all of its potentials. The newest stock price uproar, may contribute to short-horizon losses for the private investors. ...more
Begin Period Cash Flow13.6 B
Total Cashflows From Investing ActivitiesB
  

Cosan SA Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  606.00  in Cosan SA on October 28, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (41.00) from holding Cosan SA or give up 6.77% of portfolio value over 90 days. Cosan SA is generating negative expected returns and assumes 2.6903% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Simply put, 24% of stocks are less volatile than Cosan, and 99% of all equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns than the company over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cosan SA is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 3.63 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.03 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.08 per unit of volatility.

Cosan SA Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Cosan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 5.65 90 days 5.65 
about 57.76
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cosan SA to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 57.76 (This Cosan SA probability density function shows the probability of Cosan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.16 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Cosan SA will likely underperform. Additionally Cosan SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Cosan SA Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Cosan SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cosan SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.965.658.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.065.758.44
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
3.155.848.53
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
4.925.255.58
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cosan SA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cosan SA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cosan SA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Cosan SA.

Cosan SA Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cosan SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cosan SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cosan SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cosan SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.17
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.16
σ
Overall volatility
0.46
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Cosan SA Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cosan SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cosan SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Cosan SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 36.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Cosan SA Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cosan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cosan SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cosan SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.8 B
Cash And Short Term Investments21 B

Cosan SA Fundamentals Growth

Cosan Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Cosan SA, and Cosan SA fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Cosan Stock performance.

About Cosan SA Performance

Assessing Cosan SA's fundamental ratios provides investors with valuable insights into Cosan SA's financial health and overall profitability. This information is crucial for making informed investment decisions. A high ROA would indicate that the Cosan SA is effectively leveraging its assets and equity to generate significant profits, making it an appealing investment. Conversely, low Return on Assets could signal underlying management issues in assets and equity, indicating a necessity for operational refinements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Cosan S.A., through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the fuel distribution business in Brazil, Europe, Latin America, North America, Asia, and internationally. Cosan S.A. was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in So Paulo, Brazil. COSAN ON operates under Oil Gas Refining Marketing classification in Brazil and is traded on Sao Paolo Stock Exchange.

Things to note about Cosan SA performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Cosan SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Cosan SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Cosan SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 36.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Evaluating Cosan SA's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Cosan SA's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Cosan SA's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Cosan SA's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Cosan SA's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Cosan SA's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Cosan SA's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Cosan SA's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Cosan SA's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Cosan SA's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Cosan SA's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Additional Tools for Cosan Stock Analysis

When running Cosan SA's price analysis, check to measure Cosan SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cosan SA is operating at the current time. Most of Cosan SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cosan SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cosan SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cosan SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.