Mercury Systems Stock Performance

MRCY Stock  USD 85.37  3.17  3.86%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Mercury Systems holds a performance score of 6. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.63, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Mercury Systems will likely underperform. Please check Mercury Systems' potential upside, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and period momentum indicator , to make a quick decision on whether Mercury Systems' current price movements will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Mild

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Mercury Systems are ranked lower than 6 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of fairly fragile fundamental indicators, Mercury Systems showed solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
3.86
Five Day Return
(1.81)
Year To Date Return
12.28
Ten Year Return
391.76
All Time Return
1.5 K
Last Split Factor
2:1
Last Split Date
1999-12-21
1
Mercury Systems Is Up 14.1 percent After Strong Estimates Beat And Backlog Gains - Has The Bull Case Changed
01/07/2026
2
Mercury Insurance Shares Winter Driving Essentials to Help Motorists Stay Safer on the Road
01/15/2026
3
Brunswick Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
01/29/2026
4
Mercury Systems Non-GAAP EPS of 0.16 beats by 0.10, revenue of 232.8M beats by 21.45M
02/03/2026
5
Mercury Systems, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
02/04/2026
6
Mercury Systems Joins Elite Club Of Stocks With RS Ratings Over 90
02/06/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow180.5 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-13.5 M

Mercury Systems Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  7,310  in Mercury Systems on November 12, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  1,227  from holding Mercury Systems or generate 16.79% return on investment over 90 days. Mercury Systems is currently generating 0.3474% in daily expected returns and assumes 4.0667% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 36% of stocks are less volatile than Mercury, and 93% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Mercury Systems is expected to generate 5.02 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 5.02 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.09 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.08 per unit of risk.

Mercury Systems Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Mercury Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 85.37 90 days 85.37 
about 32.74
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mercury Systems to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 32.74 (This Mercury Systems probability density function shows the probability of Mercury Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.63 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Mercury Systems will likely underperform. Additionally Mercury Systems has an alpha of 0.1117, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Mercury Systems Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Mercury Systems

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mercury Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercury Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
81.8685.8789.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
81.1685.1789.18
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
88.7397.50108.23
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.220.240.26
Details

Mercury Systems Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mercury Systems is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mercury Systems' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mercury Systems, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mercury Systems within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.11
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.63
σ
Overall volatility
11.94
Ir
Information ratio 0.04

Mercury Systems Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mercury Systems for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mercury Systems can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mercury Systems had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 912.02 M. Net Loss for the year was (37.9 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 265.41 M.
Mercury Systems has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from investors.com: Mercury Systems Joins Elite Club Of Stocks With RS Ratings Over 90

Mercury Systems Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mercury Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mercury Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercury Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding58.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments309.1 M

Mercury Systems Fundamentals Growth

Mercury Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Mercury Systems, and Mercury Systems fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Mercury Stock performance.

About Mercury Systems Performance

Evaluating Mercury Systems' performance through its fundamental ratios, provides valuable insights into its operational efficiency and profitability. For instance, if Mercury Systems has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Mercury Systems has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 191.41  200.98 
Return On Tangible Assets(0.12)(0.11)
Return On Capital Employed(0.07)(0.07)
Return On Assets(0.06)(0.05)
Return On Equity(0.09)(0.09)

Things to note about Mercury Systems performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Mercury Systems for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Mercury Systems help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mercury Systems had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 912.02 M. Net Loss for the year was (37.9 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 265.41 M.
Mercury Systems has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from investors.com: Mercury Systems Joins Elite Club Of Stocks With RS Ratings Over 90
Evaluating Mercury Systems' performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Mercury Systems' stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Mercury Systems' financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Mercury Systems' stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Mercury Systems' industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Mercury Systems' management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Mercury Systems' management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Mercury Systems' stock. These opinions can provide insight into Mercury Systems' potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Mercury Systems' stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Mercury Systems' stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Additional Tools for Mercury Stock Analysis

When running Mercury Systems' price analysis, check to measure Mercury Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mercury Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Mercury Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mercury Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mercury Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mercury Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.