Microsoft (Germany) Performance

MSF Stock  EUR 337.05  1.30  0.38%   
The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.11, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Microsoft's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Microsoft is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Microsoft has a negative expected return of -0.31%. Please make sure to verify Microsoft's standard deviation, maximum drawdown, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and potential upside , to decide if Microsoft performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Microsoft has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of fragile performance in the last few months, the Stock's technical and fundamental indicators remain very healthy which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The recent disarray may also be a sign of long period up-swing for the firm investors. ...more
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0096
1
Microsoft sends harsh message to millions of Microsoft 365 customers - Yahoo Finance
12/08/2025
2
Microsoft Stock Jumps as Copilot Calls Super Bowl 60 - TipRanks
01/07/2026
3
Microsoft Wants to Power Retail Without Competing With It - MarketBeat
01/13/2026
4
Microsoft Corporation Set to Gain from Rising Software Spending, Morgan Stanley Says - Yahoo Finance
01/16/2026
5
SoundHound vs. Microsoft Can the Small Voice AI Player Beat the Tech Giant - Nasdaq
01/21/2026
6
Steve Ballmers Net Worth Drops 14B After Microsoft Shares Sink - Sportico.com
01/29/2026
7
Microsoft Stock Gets a Downgrade. Why the Azure Maker Is Unlikely to Lead in AI. - Barrons
02/05/2026
8
Amazon Joins Microsoft in Bear Market. Why Mag 7 Stocks Are Struggling. - Barrons
02/13/2026
9
Project Silica Breakthrough Does Little Good for Microsoft Stock - TipRanks
02/19/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow18.3 B
Free Cash Flow71.6 B
  

Microsoft Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  41,226  in Microsoft on November 22, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (7,521) from holding Microsoft or give up 18.24% of portfolio value over 90 days. Microsoft is producing return of less than zero assuming 2.1053% volatility of returns over the 90 days investment horizon. Simply put, 18% of all stocks have less volatile historical return distribution than Microsoft, and 99% of all equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns than the company over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Microsoft is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 2.82 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.15 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.15 per unit of volatility.

Microsoft Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Microsoft Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 337.05 90 days 337.05 
roughly 97.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Microsoft to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This Microsoft probability density function shows the probability of Microsoft Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Microsoft has a beta of 0.11. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Microsoft average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Microsoft will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Microsoft has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Microsoft Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Microsoft

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microsoft. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
332.68334.79370.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
297.73299.84370.76
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
346.60348.70350.81
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
239.45340.24441.04
Details

Microsoft Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Microsoft is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Microsoft's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Microsoft, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Microsoft within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.38
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.11
σ
Overall volatility
30.19
Ir
Information ratio -0.21

Microsoft Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Microsoft for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Microsoft can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Microsoft generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Microsoft is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from news.google.com: Project Silica Breakthrough Does Little Good for Microsoft Stock - TipRanks

Microsoft Fundamentals Growth

Microsoft Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Microsoft, and Microsoft fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Microsoft Stock performance.

About Microsoft Performance

By examining Microsoft's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into Microsoft's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that Microsoft is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
Microsoft is entity of Germany. It is traded as Stock on HM exchange.

Things to note about Microsoft performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Microsoft for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Microsoft help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Microsoft generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Microsoft is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from news.google.com: Project Silica Breakthrough Does Little Good for Microsoft Stock - TipRanks
Evaluating Microsoft's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Microsoft's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Microsoft's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Microsoft's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Microsoft's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Microsoft's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Microsoft's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Microsoft's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Microsoft's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Microsoft's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Microsoft's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.
When determining whether Microsoft is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Microsoft Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Microsoft Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Microsoft Stock:
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Microsoft. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in inflation.
To learn how to invest in Microsoft Stock, please use our How to Invest in Microsoft guide.
You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Understanding that Microsoft's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Microsoft represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Microsoft's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.