Old Dominion Freight Stock Performance

ODFL Stock  USD 198.06  -2.56  -1.28%   
Old Dominion's performance page tracks how Old Dominion has rewarded shareholders across different timeframes. The stock's expected return over 3 months is 0.0546%, complemented by a 0.59% dividend yield.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
0High
1 · Weak
Across the last 90 days, the risk-adjusted return profile of Old Dominion Freight is weaker than 1% of the global equities and portfolios reviewed by Macroaxis. The company operates within the Industrials sector and the Trucking industry. Old Dominion has generated minimal returns over the measured period, suggesting limited compensation for volatility. Learn More

Actual Historical Performance (%)

 One Day Return
-1.28
 Five Day Return
-7.22
 Year To Date Return
26.31
 Ten Year Return
818.22
 All Time Return
34,607
 Forward Dividend Yield
0.6%
 Payout Ratio
23.6%
 Last Split Factor
2:1
 Forward Dividend Rate
1.16
 Dividend Date
2026-03-18

Performance Related Modules

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 19,584 in Old Dominion Freight on February 7, 2026 and sold it today, you would have earned $ 222.00 , a return of 1.13% over 90 days. Old Dominion Freight is currently generating a 0.0546% daily expected return and carries 2.7% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In relative terms, Old Dominion exhibits above-average volatility, exceeding roughly 76% of comparable stocks, and ODFL has trailed 99% of traded instruments in return over the 90-day horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This comparison focuses on expected return, realized volatility, and risk efficiency versus the market. It is informative when expected return is read together with volatility rather than in isolation. Given a 90-day horizon, ODFL generates 2.9 times more return on investment than the market. However, ODFL is 2.9 times more volatile than its market benchmark. Its risk-adjusted efficiency stands at about 0.02% per unit of risk. Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.01% per unit of risk.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

Mean reversion in Old Dominion Stock pricing reflects the documented tendency for stocks to gravitate toward equilibrium. While this pattern holds broadly, certain stocks can remain mispriced for extended periods before correction.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
198.06 90 days 198.06
about 55.83 %
Using a normal distribution model, the likelihood of Old Dominion moving above the current price in 90 days from now is about 55.83 %. Past return patterns over this horizon reflect a distribution that has favored above-current-price scenarios. (The curve shows where outcomes have been clustering for Old Dominion Stock over the next 90 days). The curve width gives a practical read on how much uncertainty surrounds Old Dominion Stock over this horizon.
Given a 90-day horizon, the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.61 . This indicates when the benchmark rises, ODFL tends to outperform it on average. However, when benchmark returns turn negative, Old Dominion tends to underperform. Additionally, Old Dominion Freight has an alpha of 0.0907, implying that it can generate a 0.0907 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   Old Dominion Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Old Dominion

Forecasting Old Dominion Freight requires combining quantitative signals with evolving sentiment and fundamental trends. Each approach has strengths and limitations, making diversified forecasting strategies especially important for Old Dominion Freight.
Mean reversion is the tendency of Old Dominion's price to return to its historical average after periods of extreme deviation. Some analysts monitor this tendency by comparing Old Dominion's price extremes to fundamental value.
Sentiment
Range
LowSentimentHigh
195.35198.06200.77
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowIntrinsicHigh
127.17129.88217.87
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
176.43179.14181.85
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
192.58211.62234.90
Details
Old Dominion is positioned within its peer group by benchmarking margins, returns, and multiples. This peer-relative view identifies where Old Dominion leads, trails, or tracks its competitive set.

Primary Risk Indicators

Over the past two decades, the stock market has experienced significant volatility affecting Old Dominion. Old Dominion has seen dramatic price moves that have reshaped risk profiles for its holders.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.09
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.61
σ
Overall volatility
12.01
Ir
Information ratio 0.03

Investor Alerts and Insights

Targeted alerts for Old Dominion provide the responsiveness needed to evaluate market conditions and assess potential outcomes. These notifications for Old Dominion Freight help investors make timely decisions in response to significant stock events.
Old Dominion Freight's Piotroski F-Score indicates relatively stable underlying signals within the model framework, despite current profitability pressure
On 18th of March 2026 Old Dominion paid $ 0.29 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Eaton Stock Is Under Pressure After Q 1 Earnings

Price Density Drivers

Price movements in Old Dominion are influenced by the balance of buyer and seller positioning dynamics. Monitoring key indicators provides context for understanding when price movements are fundamental versus tactical.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding209.89 million
Cash And Short Term Investments120.09 million

Old Dominion Fundamentals Growth

The market price of Old Dominion Stock is shaped by investors' expectations for Old Dominion's financial performance. Revenue and earnings trends, operating margins, and capital structure decisions all play a role in Old Dominion Stock pricing.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Return quality for Old Dominion evaluates how consistent and repeatable performance has been across periods. Consistent positive returns across rolling windows support confidence in structural performance patterns. Old Dominion shows ROE of 23.33%, ROA of 15.03% (TTM) vs 19.0% (last reported).

Old Dominion Freight inputs come from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and are mapped into a consistent reporting framework. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Rifka Kats, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board