Origin Agritech Stock Performance

SEED Stock  USD 1.24  0.06  4.62%   
The company holds a Beta of 0.84, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Origin Agritech's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Origin Agritech is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Origin Agritech has a negative expected return of -0.35%. Please make sure to check Origin Agritech's maximum drawdown, daily balance of power, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day typical price , to decide if Origin Agritech performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Origin Agritech has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of uncertain performance in the last few months, the Stock's technical and fundamental indicators remain rather sound which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The latest tumult may also be a sign of longer-term up-swing for the firm shareholders. ...more
Last Split Factor
1:10
Dividend Date
2018-07-10
Last Split Date
2018-07-10
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Origin Agritech Holds Annual RD and Operations Management Conference, Establishes 2026 Strategic Priorities
12/22/2025
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Disposition of 50000 shares by Propper Richard D of Origin Agritech at 5.0 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/23/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow23.7 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-5 M

Origin Agritech Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  165.00  in Origin Agritech on November 3, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (41.00) from holding Origin Agritech or give up 24.85% of portfolio value over 90 days. Origin Agritech is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 4.676% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 42% of stocks are less volatile than Origin, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Origin Agritech is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 6.31 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.08 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of volatility.

Origin Agritech Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Origin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 1.24 90 days 1.24 
about 72.57
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Origin Agritech to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 72.57 (This Origin Agritech probability density function shows the probability of Origin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Origin Agritech has a beta of 0.84. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Origin Agritech average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Origin Agritech will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Origin Agritech has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Origin Agritech Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Origin Agritech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Agritech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Origin Agritech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.061.235.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.051.075.75
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.021.185.85
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
1.071.221.37
Details

Origin Agritech Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Origin Agritech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Origin Agritech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Origin Agritech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Origin Agritech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.48
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.84
σ
Overall volatility
0.20
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Origin Agritech Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Origin Agritech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Origin Agritech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Origin Agritech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Origin Agritech may become a speculative penny stock
Origin Agritech has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Origin Agritech has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
Origin Agritech has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
Origin Agritech currently holds 5.08 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 180.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Origin Agritech has a current ratio of 0.13, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Origin Agritech's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
Origin Agritech currently holds about 6.51 M in cash with (15.03 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.13.
Origin Agritech has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 46.0% of Origin Agritech outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
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Origin Agritech Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Origin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Origin Agritech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Origin Agritech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding6.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments8.4 M

Origin Agritech Fundamentals Growth

Origin Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Origin Agritech, and Origin Agritech fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Origin Stock performance.

About Origin Agritech Performance

By analyzing Origin Agritech's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Origin Agritech's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Origin Agritech has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Origin Agritech has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 55.53  52.75 
Return On Tangible Assets(0.04)(0.04)
Return On Capital Employed(0.04)(0.03)
Return On Assets(0.04)(0.04)
Return On Equity(0.04)(0.03)

Things to note about Origin Agritech performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Origin Agritech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Origin Agritech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Origin Agritech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Origin Agritech may become a speculative penny stock
Origin Agritech has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Origin Agritech has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
Origin Agritech has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
Origin Agritech currently holds 5.08 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 180.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Origin Agritech has a current ratio of 0.13, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Origin Agritech's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
Origin Agritech currently holds about 6.51 M in cash with (15.03 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.13.
Origin Agritech has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 46.0% of Origin Agritech outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from eu-startups.com: Belgiums Tinrate secures 1.6 million to monetise expertise, dubbed OnlyFans for knowledge by its founder
Evaluating Origin Agritech's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Origin Agritech's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Origin Agritech's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Origin Agritech's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Origin Agritech's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Origin Agritech's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Origin Agritech's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Origin Agritech's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Origin Agritech's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Origin Agritech's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Origin Agritech's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running Origin Agritech's price analysis, check to measure Origin Agritech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Agritech is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Agritech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Agritech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Agritech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Agritech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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