Super Micro Computer Stock Performance

SMCI Stock  USD 34.38  3.53  11.44%   
The entity has a beta of 2.25, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Super Micro will likely underperform. At this point, Super Micro Computer has a negative expected return of -0.17%. Please make sure to validate Super Micro's skewness, as well as the relationship between the rate of daily change and price action indicator , to decide if Super Micro Computer performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Super Micro Computer has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite latest weak performance, the Stock's fundamental indicators remain strong and the recent confusion on Wall Street may also be a sign of long-lasting gains for the firm traders. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
11.44
Five Day Return
18.43
Year To Date Return
11.05
Ten Year Return
984.54
All Time Return
3.8 K
Last Split Factor
10:1
Last Split Date
2024-10-01
1
Super Micro Computer Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market Key Insights
01/13/2026
2
Super Micro Computer Sees Unusually Large Options Volume
01/16/2026
3
Jim Cramer Thinks Its Time to Sell Super Micro Computer. Is That the Right Call
01/22/2026
4
Should You Hold or Fold Super Micro Computer Stock Before Q2 Earnings
01/29/2026
5
Super Micro Computer, Inc.s US1.0b market value fall may be overlooked by institutional investors after a year of 8.4 percent returns
02/02/2026
6
Super Micro Reports Bullish Q4 CY2025, Stock Soars
02/03/2026
7
Why Super Micro Stock Is Trading Up Today
02/04/2026
8
Analysts See Super Micro Computer Finally Staging a Turnaround. Should You Buy SMCI Stock Now
02/05/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow1.7 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-183.2 M

Super Micro Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  4,019  in Super Micro Computer on November 10, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (581.00) from holding Super Micro Computer or give up 14.46% of portfolio value over 90 days. Super Micro Computer is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 4.1021% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 36% of stocks are less volatile than Super, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Super Micro is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 5.05 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.04 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.12 per unit of volatility.

Super Micro Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Super Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 34.38 90 days 34.38 
about 37.61
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Super Micro to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 37.61 (This Super Micro Computer probability density function shows the probability of Super Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.25 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Super Micro will likely underperform. Additionally Super Micro Computer has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Super Micro Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Super Micro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Super Micro Computer. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Super Micro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
30.1834.2838.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
30.9435.0439.14
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
36.2839.8744.25
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.530.560.62
Details

Super Micro Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Super Micro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Super Micro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Super Micro Computer, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Super Micro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.69
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.25
σ
Overall volatility
4.15
Ir
Information ratio -0.14

Super Micro Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Super Micro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Super Micro Computer can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Super Micro Computer generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Super Micro Computer has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Super Micro Computer has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 56.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Analysts See Super Micro Computer Finally Staging a Turnaround. Should You Buy SMCI Stock Now

Super Micro Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Super Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Super Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Super Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding628.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments5.2 B

Super Micro Fundamentals Growth

Super Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Super Micro, and Super Micro fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Super Stock performance.

About Super Micro Performance

By evaluating Super Micro's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Super Micro's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Super Micro has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Super Micro has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 78.68  76.74 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.07  0.06 
Return On Capital Employed 0.12  0.19 
Return On Assets 0.07  0.06 
Return On Equity 0.19  0.17 

Things to note about Super Micro Computer performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Super Micro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Super Micro Computer help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Super Micro Computer generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Super Micro Computer has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Super Micro Computer has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 56.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Analysts See Super Micro Computer Finally Staging a Turnaround. Should You Buy SMCI Stock Now
Evaluating Super Micro's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Super Micro's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Super Micro's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Super Micro's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Super Micro's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Super Micro's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Super Micro's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Super Micro's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Super Micro's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Super Micro's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Super Micro's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Super Stock analysis

When running Super Micro's price analysis, check to measure Super Micro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Super Micro is operating at the current time. Most of Super Micro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Super Micro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Super Micro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Super Micro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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