Super Micro Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SMCI Stock | USD 31.70 0.75 2.31% |
Super Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Super Micro's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Super Micro's share price is approaching 40. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Super Micro, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.62) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6175 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.051 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.0186 | Wall Street Target Price 46.7059 |
Using Super Micro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Super Micro Computer from the perspective of Super Micro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Super Micro using Super Micro's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Super using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Super Micro's stock price.
Super Micro Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Super Micro's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Super. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Super Micro stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 41.8691 | Short Percent 0.1939 | Short Ratio 4.27 | Shares Short Prior Month 89.2 M | 50 Day MA 32.2326 |
Super Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Super Micro Computer on the next trading day is expected to be 33.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.56.Super Micro Computer Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Super Micro's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Super. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Super can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Super Micro Computer. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Super Micro's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Super Micro.
Super Micro Implied Volatility | 0.9 |
Super Micro's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Super Micro Computer stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Super Micro's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Super Micro stock will not fluctuate a lot when Super Micro's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Super Micro Computer on the next trading day is expected to be 33.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.56. Super Micro after-hype prediction price | USD 33.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Super Micro to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Super contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Super Micro Computer will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0563% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Super Micro trading at USD 31.7, that is roughly USD 0.0178 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Super Micro's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Super Micro Computer options at the current volatility level of 0.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Super Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Super Micro's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Super Micro's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Super Micro stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Super Micro's open interest, investors have to compare it to Super Micro's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Super Micro is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Super. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Super Micro Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Super price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Super using various technical indicators. When you analyze Super charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Super Micro Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Super Micro's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2005-06-30 | Previous Quarter 5.2 B | Current Value 4.2 B | Quarterly Volatility 861.9 M |
Super Micro Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Super Micro Computer on the next trading day is expected to be 33.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06, mean absolute percentage error of 1.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Super Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Super Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Super Micro Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Super Micro | Super Micro Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Super Micro Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Super Micro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Super Micro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.79 and 36.98, respectively. We have considered Super Micro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Super Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Super Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6963 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0584 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0299 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 64.5642 |
Predictive Modules for Super Micro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Super Micro Computer. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Super Micro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Super Micro After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Super Micro at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Super Micro or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Super Micro, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Super Micro Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Super Micro's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Super Micro's historical news coverage. Super Micro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.27 and 37.45, respectively. We have considered Super Micro's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Super Micro is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Super Micro Computer is based on 3 months time horizon.
Super Micro Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Super Micro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Super Micro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Super Micro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.74 | 3.59 | 2.16 | 1.37 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
31.70 | 33.86 | 6.81 |
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Super Micro Hype Timeline
Super Micro Computer is at this time traded for 31.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.37. Super is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 33.86 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 122.95%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 6.81%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.74%. The volatility of related hype on Super Micro is about 193.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.07. The company has Profit Margin (PM) of 0.04 %, which maeans that even a very small decline in it revenue will erase profits resulting in a net loss. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of 0.04 %, which suggests for every 100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating income of $0.04. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Super Micro to cross-verify your projections.Super Micro Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Super Micro's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Super Micro's future price movements. Getting to know how Super Micro's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Super Micro may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PSTG | Pure Storage | 0.81 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.99 | (5.74) | 34.28 | |
| HPQ | HP Inc | 0.08 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 2.73 | (3.97) | 10.78 | |
| HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise | (0.47) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.85 | (4.17) | 9.92 | |
| NTAP | NetApp Inc | 0.56 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.31 | (2.89) | 13.30 | |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corp | 39.62 | 7 per month | 5.43 | 0.25 | 15.31 | (7.88) | 36.75 | |
| KEYS | Keysight Technologies | 2.77 | 9 per month | 1.33 | 0.16 | 2.87 | (2.83) | 13.11 | |
| RGTI | Rigetti Computing | 0.28 | 35 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 9.82 | (10.07) | 24.38 | |
| BR | Broadridge Financial Solutions | (1.18) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.42 | (1.92) | 6.31 | |
| TER | Teradyne | (1.49) | 9 per month | 2.28 | 0.20 | 6.80 | (4.05) | 27.80 | |
| MDB | MongoDB | (22.47) | 8 per month | 2.31 | 0.08 | 3.57 | (3.90) | 28.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for Super Micro
For every potential investor in Super, whether a beginner or expert, Super Micro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Super Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Super. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Super Micro's price trends.Super Micro Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Super Micro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Super Micro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Super Micro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Super Micro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Super Micro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Super Micro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Super Micro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Super Micro Computer entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Super Micro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Super Micro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Super Micro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting super stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.78 | |||
| Variance | 14.26 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Super Micro
The number of cover stories for Super Micro depends on current market conditions and Super Micro's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Super Micro is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Super Micro's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Super Micro Short Properties
Super Micro's future price predictability will typically decrease when Super Micro's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Super Micro Computer often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Super Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Super Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 628.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Super Micro to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Super Micro. If investors know Super will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Super Micro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.62) | Earnings Share 1.27 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Super Micro Computer is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Super that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Super Micro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Super Micro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Super Micro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Super Micro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Super Micro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Super Micro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Super Micro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.