Smith Micro Software Stock Performance

SMSI Stock  USD 0.49  0.03  5.77%   
The entity has a beta of 2.76, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Smith Micro will likely underperform. At this point, Smith Micro Software has a negative expected return of -0.42%. Please make sure to validate Smith Micro's information ratio, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the Potential Upside and rate of daily change , to decide if Smith Micro Software performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Smith Micro Software has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite weak performance in the last few months, the Stock's basic indicators remain fairly strong which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The recent confusion may also be a sign of long-lasting up-swing for the firm traders. ...more
Last Split Factor
1:8
Dividend Date
2016-08-17
Last Split Date
2024-04-11
1
Disposition of 12901 shares by William Smith of Smith Micro subject to Rule 16b-3
11/11/2025
2
Smith Micro Software, Inc. announced that it has received 1.5 million in funding - MarketScreener
11/20/2025
3
Is Smith Micro Software Inc. stock cheap compared to fundamentals - Quarterly Risk Review Free Expert Verified Stock Movement Alerts - Newser
12/04/2025
4
Acquisition by William Smith of 119049 shares of Smith Micro subject to Rule 16b-3
12/09/2025
5
Disposition of 38697 shares by William Smith of Smith Micro at 0.6028 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/10/2025
6
Disposition of 1000 shares by William Smith of Smith Micro at 0.6225 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/17/2025
7
What drives Smith Micro Software Inc stock price - RSI OverboughtOversold Free Discover Dynamic Stocks - earlytimes.in
12/22/2025
8
Smith Micro Announces Launch of SafePath OS for Senior Phone
01/06/2026
9
Sidetrade renforce son dispositif de confiance avec lobtention des rapports SOC 1 Type II et SOC 2 Type II et le renouvellement de sa certification ISO 27001
01/13/2026
10
Investment Report Is Smith Micro Software Inc undervalued by DCF analysis - Trend Reversal Target Return Focused Picks - baoquankhu1.vn
01/26/2026
11
Acquisition by Huffmyer Timothy C. of 50000 shares of Smith Micro subject to Rule 16b-3
01/27/2026
12
Aug Wrap Is Smith Micro Software Inc gaining market share - 2025 Bull vs Bear Free Community Consensus Stock Picks - baoquankhu1.vn
02/02/2026
13
Acquisition by William Smith of 1480165 shares of Smith Micro at 0.68 subject to Rule 16b-3
02/03/2026
14
Smith Micro Secures Insider Financing to Boost Liquidity - TipRanks
02/05/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow7.1 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities178 K

Smith Micro Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  65.00  in Smith Micro Software on November 8, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (16.00) from holding Smith Micro Software or give up 24.62% of portfolio value over 90 days. Smith Micro Software is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 3.2542% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 29% of stocks are less volatile than Smith, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Smith Micro is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 4.25 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.13 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of volatility.

Smith Micro Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Smith Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 0.49 90 days 0.49 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Smith Micro to move above the current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Smith Micro Software probability density function shows the probability of Smith Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.76 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Smith Micro will likely underperform. Additionally Smith Micro Software has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Smith Micro Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Smith Micro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smith Micro Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Smith Micro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.020.493.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.071.484.65
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.010.463.63
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
4.104.505.00
Details

Smith Micro Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Smith Micro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Smith Micro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Smith Micro Software, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Smith Micro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.6
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.76
σ
Overall volatility
0.04
Ir
Information ratio -0.14

Smith Micro Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Smith Micro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Smith Micro Software can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Smith Micro Software generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Smith Micro Software has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Smith Micro Software has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Smith Micro Software has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 20.55 M. Net Loss for the year was (48.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 13.58 M.
Smith Micro Software currently holds about 5.36 M in cash with (14.29 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.1.
Smith Micro Software has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 28.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Smith Micro Secures Insider Financing to Boost Liquidity - TipRanks

Smith Micro Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Smith Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Smith Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smith Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding12.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.8 M

Smith Micro Fundamentals Growth

Smith Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Smith Micro, and Smith Micro fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Smith Stock performance.

About Smith Micro Performance

By evaluating Smith Micro's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Smith Micro's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Smith Micro has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Smith Micro has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 0.67  0.63 
Return On Tangible Assets(4.18)(3.97)
Return On Capital Employed(1.34)(1.27)
Return On Assets(1.17)(1.11)
Return On Equity(1.37)(1.31)

Things to note about Smith Micro Software performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Smith Micro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Smith Micro Software help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Smith Micro Software generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Smith Micro Software has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Smith Micro Software has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Smith Micro Software has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 20.55 M. Net Loss for the year was (48.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 13.58 M.
Smith Micro Software currently holds about 5.36 M in cash with (14.29 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.1.
Smith Micro Software has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 28.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Smith Micro Secures Insider Financing to Boost Liquidity - TipRanks
Evaluating Smith Micro's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Smith Micro's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Smith Micro's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Smith Micro's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Smith Micro's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Smith Micro's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Smith Micro's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Smith Micro's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Smith Micro's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Smith Micro's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Smith Micro's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Smith Stock analysis

When running Smith Micro's price analysis, check to measure Smith Micro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Smith Micro is operating at the current time. Most of Smith Micro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Smith Micro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Smith Micro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Smith Micro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Bonds Directory
Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Competition Analyzer
Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk