Smith Micro Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SMSI Stock | USD 0.60 0.01 1.69% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smith Micro Software on the next trading day is expected to be 0.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.13. Smith Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Smith Micro's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 24th of January 2026 the relative strength indicator of Smith Micro's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.09) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.49) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.05) | Wall Street Target Price 4.5 |
Using Smith Micro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Smith Micro Software from the perspective of Smith Micro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Smith Micro using Smith Micro's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Smith using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Smith Micro's stock price.
Smith Micro Implied Volatility | 1.74 |
Smith Micro's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Smith Micro Software stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Smith Micro's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Smith Micro stock will not fluctuate a lot when Smith Micro's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smith Micro Software on the next trading day is expected to be 0.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.13. Smith Micro after-hype prediction price | USD 0.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Micro to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Smith Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Smith Micro's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Smith Micro's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Smith Micro stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Smith Micro's open interest, investors have to compare it to Smith Micro's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Smith Micro is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Smith. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Smith Micro Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Smith price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Smith using various technical indicators. When you analyze Smith charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Smith Micro Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Smith Micro's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1994-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1.4 M | Current Value 1.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 18.3 M |
Smith Micro Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smith Micro Software on the next trading day is expected to be 0.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0005, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smith Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smith Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Smith Micro Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Smith Micro | Smith Micro Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Smith Micro Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Smith Micro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smith Micro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.47, respectively. We have considered Smith Micro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smith Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smith Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.3782 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0182 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0302 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.1262 |
Predictive Modules for Smith Micro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smith Micro Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Smith Micro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Smith Micro After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Smith Micro at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Smith Micro or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Smith Micro, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Smith Micro Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Smith Micro's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Smith Micro's historical news coverage. Smith Micro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 4.47, respectively. We have considered Smith Micro's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Smith Micro is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Smith Micro Software is based on 3 months time horizon.
Smith Micro Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Smith Micro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Smith Micro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Smith Micro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 3.87 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.60 | 0.60 | 0.00 |
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Smith Micro Hype Timeline
Smith Micro Software is at this time traded for 0.60. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.03. Smith is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on Smith Micro is about 2725.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.57. About 28.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.73. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Smith Micro Software recorded a loss per share of 1.07. The entity last dividend was issued on the 17th of August 2016. The firm had 1:8 split on the 11th of April 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Micro to cross-verify your projections.Smith Micro Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Smith Micro's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Smith Micro's future price movements. Getting to know how Smith Micro's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Smith Micro may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CNTM | ConnectM Technology Solutions | 0.02 | 2 per month | 9.41 | 0.06 | 22.73 | (15.38) | 54.57 | |
| CXAI | CXApp Inc | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 8.11 | (10.87) | 36.84 | |
| AMOD | Alpha Modus Holdings | (0.02) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.23 | (8.77) | 41.10 | |
| WCT | Wellchange Holdings | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 5.56 | (7.41) | 29.28 | |
| HUBC | Hub Cyber Security | (0.15) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 8.94 | (17.81) | 90.82 | |
| AMST | Amesite Operating Co | (0.22) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.82 | (8.49) | 30.71 | |
| BNZI | Banzai International | (1.79) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 13.56 | (13.33) | 48.98 | |
| AIXI | XIAO I American | 0.08 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 7.35 | (10.28) | 44.03 | |
| NVNI | Nvni Group Limited | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.73 | (8.44) | 29.43 | |
| SOPA | Society Pass | 0.68 | 7 per month | 8.98 | 0.03 | 16.92 | (14.54) | 91.61 |
Other Forecasting Options for Smith Micro
For every potential investor in Smith, whether a beginner or expert, Smith Micro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smith Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smith. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smith Micro's price trends.Smith Micro Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smith Micro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smith Micro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smith Micro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Smith Micro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smith Micro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smith Micro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smith Micro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Smith Micro Software entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4686.29 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3333 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.61 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.6 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
Smith Micro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Smith Micro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smith Micro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smith stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.77 | |||
| Variance | 14.24 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Smith Micro
The number of cover stories for Smith Micro depends on current market conditions and Smith Micro's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Smith Micro is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Smith Micro's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Smith Micro Short Properties
Smith Micro's future price predictability will typically decrease when Smith Micro's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Smith Micro Software often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Smith Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smith Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Micro to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Smith Micro. If investors know Smith will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Smith Micro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) | Earnings Share (1.07) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Smith Micro Software is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Smith that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Smith Micro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Smith Micro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Smith Micro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Smith Micro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Smith Micro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Smith Micro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Smith Micro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.