Advantage Oil Gas Stock Price Prediction
| AAV Stock | CAD 8.90 0.30 3.26% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
53
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.32 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.2167 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.3375 | Wall Street Target Price 13.1364 |
Using Advantage Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advantage Oil Gas from the perspective of Advantage Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Advantage Oil to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Advantage because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Advantage Oil after-hype prediction price | CAD 9.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Advantage |
Advantage Oil After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Advantage Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Advantage Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Advantage Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Advantage Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Advantage Oil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Advantage Oil's historical news coverage. Advantage Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.01 and 11.37, respectively. We have considered Advantage Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Advantage Oil is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Advantage Oil Gas is based on 3 months time horizon.
Advantage Oil Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Advantage Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advantage Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advantage Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 2.23 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.90 | 9.19 | 0.11 |
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Advantage Oil Hype Timeline
Advantage Oil Gas is presently traded for 8.90on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Advantage is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 9.19. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Advantage Oil is about 5247.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.89. About 40.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.97. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Advantage Oil Gas has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.24. The entity last dividend was issued on the 25th of February 2009. The firm had 1:4 split on the 29th of May 2001. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Advantage Oil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Advantage Oil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Advantage Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Advantage Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how Advantage Oil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Advantage Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BIR | Birchcliff Energy | 0.02 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.04 | (3.70) | 8.90 | |
| NVA | NuVista Energy | (0.28) | 2 per month | 2.02 | (0.01) | 3.89 | (3.37) | 9.62 | |
| KEL | Kelt Exploration | (0.06) | 2 per month | 1.91 | 0.01 | 3.39 | (3.00) | 10.27 | |
| PEY | Peyto ExplorationDevelopment Corp | 0.15 | 2 per month | 1.03 | 0.11 | 2.63 | (1.93) | 7.07 |
Advantage Oil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Advantage price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advantage using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advantage charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Advantage Oil Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Advantage Oil stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Advantage Oil Gas, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Advantage Oil based on analysis of Advantage Oil hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Advantage Oil's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Advantage Oil's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0229 | 0.0217 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.79 | 1.73 |
Story Coverage note for Advantage Oil
The number of cover stories for Advantage Oil depends on current market conditions and Advantage Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Advantage Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Advantage Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Advantage Oil Short Properties
Advantage Oil's future price predictability will typically decrease when Advantage Oil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Advantage Oil Gas often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Advantage Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advantage Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 171.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 19.3 M |
Other Information on Investing in Advantage Stock
Advantage Oil financial ratios help investors to determine whether Advantage Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Advantage with respect to the benefits of owning Advantage Oil security.