Ardagh Metal Packaging Stock Price Patterns
| AMBP Stock | USD 4.79 0.02 0.42% |
Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ardagh Metal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ardagh Metal Packaging from the perspective of Ardagh Metal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ardagh Metal to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ardagh because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ardagh Metal after-hype prediction price | USD 4.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Ardagh Metal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Ardagh Metal After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ardagh Metal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ardagh Metal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ardagh Metal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ardagh Metal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ardagh Metal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ardagh Metal's historical news coverage. Ardagh Metal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.92 and 6.48, respectively. We have considered Ardagh Metal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ardagh Metal is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ardagh Metal Packaging is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ardagh Metal Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ardagh Metal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ardagh Metal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ardagh Metal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.61 | 1.78 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.79 | 4.70 | 1.88 |
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Ardagh Metal Hype Timeline
Ardagh Metal Packaging is presently traded for 4.79. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Ardagh is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 4.7. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.88%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.61%. The volatility of related hype on Ardagh Metal is about 14833.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.80. About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.59. Ardagh Metal Packaging recorded a loss per share of 0.01. The entity last dividend was issued on the 3rd of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Ardagh Metal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ardagh Metal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ardagh Metal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ardagh Metal's future price movements. Getting to know how Ardagh Metal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ardagh Metal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OI | O I Glass | (0.1) | 2 per month | 1.51 | 0.17 | 4.38 | (2.95) | 18.50 | |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc | 0.27 | 8 per month | 0.83 | 0.28 | 3.67 | (1.92) | 6.35 | |
| EYE | National Vision Holdings | 0.81 | 11 per month | 2.25 | 0.03 | 4.10 | (4.32) | 13.28 | |
| ADNT | Adient PLC | (0.66) | 9 per month | 3.84 | 0.03 | 5.22 | (5.12) | 16.72 | |
| GT | Goodyear Tire Rubber | (0.11) | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.22 | 6.56 | (2.47) | 11.63 | |
| UAA | Under Armour A | 0.01 | 12 per month | 2.09 | 0.20 | 6.44 | (4.18) | 13.53 | |
| TRS | TriMas | (1.18) | 9 per month | 2.00 | (0.04) | 2.32 | (3.15) | 6.74 | |
| GEF | Greif Bros | 0.06 | 7 per month | 1.11 | 0.24 | 2.78 | (2.01) | 6.40 | |
| SBET | Sharplink Gaming | 0.54 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 7.07 | (9.60) | 23.02 | |
| SAH | Sonic Automotive | 0.48 | 10 per month | 1.83 | (0.04) | 3.41 | (3.19) | 7.72 |
Ardagh Metal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ardagh price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ardagh using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ardagh charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ardagh Metal Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ardagh Metal stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ardagh Metal Packaging, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ardagh Metal based on analysis of Ardagh Metal hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ardagh Metal's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ardagh Metal's related companies.
Pair Trading with Ardagh Metal
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ardagh Metal position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ardagh Metal will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Ardagh Stock
Moving against Ardagh Stock
| 0.57 | T2G | TRADEGATE | PairCorr |
| 0.52 | GEO | Empire Metals Limited | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | AMY | American Manganese | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | VA7A | VERISK ANLYTCS A | PairCorr |
| 0.37 | 3TY | TITAN MACHINERY | PairCorr |
| 0.32 | IMI | Infinity Mining | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ardagh Metal could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ardagh Metal when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ardagh Metal - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ardagh Metal Packaging to buy it.
The correlation of Ardagh Metal is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ardagh Metal moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ardagh Metal Packaging moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ardagh Metal can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Ardagh Stock Analysis
When running Ardagh Metal's price analysis, check to measure Ardagh Metal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ardagh Metal is operating at the current time. Most of Ardagh Metal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ardagh Metal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ardagh Metal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ardagh Metal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.